Forecasting the upcoming week: Prospects of a global trade war remain front and centre

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

The Greenback ended another chaotic week amid the intensification of the US-China trade conflict, with US stagflation concers also adding to the negative performance. The US Dollar ended its third consecutive week in the red.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to three-year lows near the 99.00 mark amid increasing concerns around the prospects of a US economic slowdown and unabated fears surrouding the potential impact of tariffs on the global economy. The Import/Export Prices, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, and the API’s report on US crude oil inventories will be released on April 15. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications is due on April 16, seconded by Retail Sales, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Capacity Utilisation, Business Inventories, the NAHB Housing Market Index, Net TIC Flows and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. Building Permits, Housing Starts, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims are expected on April 17.

EUR/USD extended its rally markedly to the area of three-year peaks around 1.1480 following the strong pullback in the US Dollar. Germany’s Wholesale Prices are due on April 15, followed by the ZEW’s Economic Sentiment in Germany and the euro area. The EMU’s Current Account Results and the final Inflation Rate are due on April 16. The ECB is expected to cut rates on April 17.

GBP/USD advanced to six-month tops near 1.3150 in reponse to the intense sell-off in the Greenback and auspicous prints from the UK calendar. The BRC Retail Sales Monitor comes on April 15, ahead of the UK’s labour market report. The key Inflation Rate is due on April 16.

USD/JPY retreated for the seconde week in a row, this time hitting seven-month troughs near the 142.00 zone on solid safe-haven inflows. The final Industrial Production figures are due on April 14 along with Capacity Utilization. On April 16 will come the Reuters Tankan Index and Machinery Orders. Balance of Trade results are due on April 17, followed by the weekly prints from Foreign Bond Investment. Japan’s Inflation Rate is due on April 18.

A volatile week saw AUD/USD plummet to the vicnity of the 0.5900 level on April 9, just to reverse course and approach the key 0.6300 hurdle two days later. The RBA Minutes take centre stage on April 15, while the Westpac Leading Index is expected on Aprl 16. The relevant labour market report in Oz is expected on April 17.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

- The Fed’s Barkin and Waller speak on April 14.

- The Fed’s Harker, Bostic, and Barkin will speak on April 15.

- The Fed’s Powell and Hammack are due to speak on April 16.

- The BoJ’s Nakagawa speaks on April 17, seconded by the Fed’s Schmid, Barr, and the ECB’s Lagarde.

- The Fed’s Daly will speak on April 18.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

- The BoC will meet on April 16 (2.75% act, 2.75% exp).

- The ECB meets on April 17 (2.50% act, 2.25% exp).

- The BoK will decide on rates on April 17 (2.75% act, 2.75% exp).

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

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