Forecasting the upcoming week: Focus shifts to the BoE and trade developments

Despite Friday’s NFP-led slump, the US Dollar (USD) ended this week on a positive note, reversing the previous decline. It was a week dominated by the trade narrative as well as the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged amid a surprising split vote.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) managed to reclaim the area beyond the 100.00 threshold, but it surrendered part of that important advance while investors were digesting the poor NFP prints. The release of Factory Orders will kickstart the calendar on August 4, while the ISM Services PMI will be in the spotlight on August 5 along with the final S&P Global Services PMI, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. The usual weekly MBA Mortgage Applications and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories are expected on August 6. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on August 7, followed by Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Inflation Expectations.

After bottoming out in two-month lows near 1.1400, EUR/USD managed to bounce off those levels and trim part of its weekly losses on Friday. The final HCOB Services PMIs in Germany and the euro bloc are expected on August 5, followed by the EMU’s Producer Prices. Germany’s Factory Orders and the HCOB Construction PMI are due on August 6, followed by the Retail Sales and the HCOB Construction PMI in the broader bloc. On August 7 come Germany’s Balance of Trade results and Industrial Production figures.

A dreadful week saw GBP/USD fall to the mid-1.3100s for the first time since mid-April, although it regained some pace on Friday. The final S&P Global Services PMI and New Car Sales are expected on August 5, while the S&P Global Construction PMI will be released on August 6. The BoE meets on August 7, while further data will feature the Halifax House Price Index and the BoE’s Decision Maker Panel survey (DMP).

Friday’s collapse of the greenback prompted USD/JPY to rapidly abandon the area of recent tops north of 150.00 and recede markedly toward the 147.50 zone, leaving spot marginally up on a weekly basis. The BoJ will publish its Minutes on August 5, followed by the final S&P Global Services PMI. Average Cash Earnings are due on August 6. On August 7 will come the weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures alongside the preliminary Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index. The BoJ Summary of Opinions will wrap up the docket on August 8, seconded by Household Spending, Bank Lending, Current Account results, and the Eco Watchers survey.

Friday’s rebound allowed AUD/USD to trim part of its weekly losses and advance to the boundaries of the 0.6500 barrier after falling to as low as the 0.6420-0.6410 band. The final S&P Global Services PMI is due on August 5 along with Household Spending readings. On August 6, the Ai Group Industry Index will be in the spotlight. Balance of Trade results and the final Building Permits and Private House Approvals will be published on August 7.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

• The Fed’s Daly, Collins, and Cook will speak on August 6.
• The Fed’s Bostic and Musalem speak on August 7 alongside the RBA’s Connolly.
• The BoE’s Pill will speak on August 8 alongside the Fed’s Musalem.
• The Fed’s Bowman is due to speak on August 9.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

• The RBI will decide on rates on August 6 (act. 5.50% vs. 5.50% exp.).
• BoE meets on August 7 (act. 4.25% vs. 4.25% exp.) along with Banxico (act. 8.00% vs. 7.75% exp.).