Forecasting the upcoming week: Fed takes control with the release of the Minutes

There was no stopping for the march north in the US Dollar (USD). Indeed, the Greenback clinched its third consecutive week of gains, including fresh tops in levels last traded in April 2025, always on the back of unabated speculation of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, with some investors even pricing in a half-point rate raise at the December meeting. The rest of the macro universe has remained pretty much the same, with crude oil prices edging lower on hopes of a diplomatic solution to the US-Iran-Hormuz trifecta.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) gained momentum, surpassing the 103.00 barrier to reach new 18-month peaks, supported by rising US Treasury yields across the curve and steady expectations for additional rate hikes by the Fed. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is due on November 16. On November 17 will come the ADP Employment Change Weekly, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Industrial/Manufacturing Production, Import/Export Prices, the NAHB Housing Market Index, and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. The usual MBA Mortgage Applications are due on November 18 along with Housing Starts and Building Permits, Pending Homes Sales, TIC Flows and the FOMC Minutes, all preceding the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims are expected on November 19, alongside the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The final U-Mich Consumer Sentiment gauge will wrap up the docket on November 20

EUR/USD retreated further, revisiting levels last seen in April 2025 around 1.1040 while keeping the multi-week negative streak well in place. EMU’s Industrial Production comes on November 16. On November 17, the ZEW institute will release its Economic Sentiment gauge for Germany and the broader Euroland. The final Inflation Rate in the euro area is expected on November 18, while the Current Account results and Construction Output in the euro zone are due on November 19. The European Commission will publish its preliminary Consumer Confidence gauge on November 20.

GBP/USD has built on the previous decline and receded to the area of four-week troughs, just pips away from the 1.3200 yardstick. The Rightmove House Price Index is due on November 16, while the labour market report will take centre stage on November 17. On November 18, the focus of attention will shift to the release of the Inflation Rate. The CBI Industrial Trends Orders will come on November 19. Retail Sales, the GfK Consumer Confidence and Public Sector Net Borrowing figures will all close the docket across the Channel on November 20.

USD/JPY clinched its third week of gains, briefly surpassing the critical 160.00 threshold on Friday. The flash GDP Growth Rate comes on November 16 along with the final Industrial Production data. On November 17, the Tertiary Industry Activity Index is expected, while the Trade Balance results are due on November 18, alongside Exports and Imports data. Core Machinery Orders and the weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures are due on November 19, while the Inflation Rate will be released on November 20.

AUD/USD collapsed to the area last traded in January below the 0.6800 support level, down for the third week in a row at the same time. The RBA will publish its Minutes on November 17, while the quarterly Wage Price Index data is due on November 18. The always relevant labour market report is expected on November 19, while the flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due for release on November 22.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

• The Fed’s Williams and Warsh are due to speak on November 16 along with the RBA’s Bullock.
• The Fed’s Williams speaks on November 17.
• The Fed’s Barr, Williams and Kashkari are due to speak on November 18, alongside the ECB’s Nagel and the BoE’s Bailey.
• The Fed’s Goolsbee, Barkin and Barr are due to speak on November 19, seconded by the ECB’s Lagarde and the BoE’s Dhingra.
• The ECB’s Lagarde speaks on November 20.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

• The MNB will decide on its interest rate on November 17 (unch).
• The BI meets on November 18 (hike).
• The SARB will meet on November 19 (unch),
• The PBoC will decide on rates on November 20 (unch).