Forecasting the upcoming week: Attention will be on US jobs and ECB decision

The US Dollar (USD) navigated quite a volatile week, ending with modest gains and managing to at least trim part of the previous week’s steep sell-off. In the meantime, trade uncertainty remained well in place for yet another week, while concerns over the health of the US economy were far from dissipated.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) printed a modest weekly advance, although a convincing surpass of the psychological 100.00 hurdle remained elusive. The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is due on June 2 alongside the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending. The JOLTS Job Openings report is scheduled for June 3, followed by the Factory Orders, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, and the weekly API report on US crude oil inventories. The ADP report will take centre stage on June 4, followed by the final S&P Global Services PMI, the ISM Services PMI, the weekly MBA mortgage applications, the Fed’s Beige Book, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. The Challenger Job Cuts will be released on June 5, along with the Balance of Trade results, the final Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labour Costs, and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. The publication of the Nonfarm Payrolls will be the salient event on June 6, seconded by the Unemployment Rate.

The EUR/USD's upward momentum has once again encountered resistance in the 1.1400 region, amidst the ongoing multi-day consolidation trend. On June 2, Germany and the euro area will release the final HCOB Manufacturing PMI. The preliminary Inflation Rate and Unemployment Rate in the euro bloc are due on June 3. On June 4, we expect the final HCOB Services PMI in Germany and the EMU. Germany’s Factory Orders and the HCOB Construction PMI will be published on June 5, along with EMU’s HCOB Construction PMI and Producer Prices. On june 6, Germany’s Balance of Trade results are due ahead of the euro area’s Retail Sales, Employment Change, and the final Q1 GDP Growth Rate.

GBP/USD closed the week in the red despite its earlier advance to multi-year peaks near 1.3600 the figure. Mortgage Approvals, Mortgage Lending, the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, the Nationwide Housing Prices and the BoE’s M4 Money Supply are all due on June 2. The final S&P Global Services PMI comes on June 4, while the S&P Global Construction PMI is due on June 5. The Halifax House Price Index and the BBA Mortgage Rate will wrap up the weekly UK docket on June 6.

Renewed depreciation of the Japanese Yen motivated USD/JPY to resume its weekly uptrend, leaving behind the previous marked retracement. On June 2 will come the Capital Spending figures, seconded by the final Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI. The final Jibun Bank Services PMI is expected on June 4, while the weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures and Average Cash Earnings will be released on June 5. Household Spending is due on June 6 alongside the preliminary Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index.

AUD/USD maintained its consolidative phase in place on the daily chart, always around its key 200-day SMA near 0.6450. The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is due on June 2, ahead of Commodity Prices. The RBA will release its Minutes on June 3, followed by Business Inventories and the Current Account results. The Ai Group survey comes on June 4, along with the final S&P Global Services PMI and the Q1 GDP Growth Rate. The Australian Balance of Trade results are due on June 5, while the final readings of Building Permits and Private House Approvals are due on June 6.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

- The Fed’s Powell, Waller, Logan, and Goolsbee will speak on June 2 alongside the BoE’s Mann.

- The RBA’S Hunter speaks on June 3, followed by the BoJ’s Ueda and the Fed’s Goolsbee and Logan.

- The Fed’s Bostic and Cook speak on June 4.

- The BoE’s Greene and Breeden will speak on June 5, along with the Fed’s Kugler and Harker.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

- The BoC (act. 2.75% vs. 2.50% exp.) meets on June 4, along with the NBP (5.25% act. vs. 5.00% exp.).

- The ECB will decide on rates on June 5 (2.25% act. vs. 2.00% exp.).

- The RBI will meet on June 6 (6.00% act. vs. 5.75% exp.)