Forecasting the upcoming week: Attention returns to US inflation… and tariffs

The Greenback suffered once again due to uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, as well as rising concerns over the health of the US economy, particularly in light of recent disappointing US economic data.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke below the 104.00 contention area to print fresh four-month lows amid the mixed tone in US yields and the ijnjtense recovery in the risk-associated universe. The NFIB Business Optimism Index and the JOLTs Job Openings will be at the centre of the debate on March 11, ahead of the API’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. The Inflation Rate will take centre stage on March 12, seconded by the weekly MBA’s Mortgage Applications, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims wil be published on March 13, followed by Producer Prices. The preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment gauge will close the calendar on March 14.

EUR/USD continued its strong upward momentum, decisively breaking past the 1.0800 barrier to print new multi-month highs. The Balance of Trade results and Industrial Production readings in Germany will be released on March 10, while the final Inflation Rate in Germany is due on March 14.

GBP/USD moved further up and reclaimed the area beyond 1.2900 the figure on the back of the pronounced pullback in the Greenback. The BRC Retail Sales Monitor will be published on March 11, while the RICS House Price Balance is expected on March 13. Finally, UK GDP prints, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, Balance of Trade, and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker are all due on March 14.

USD/JPY extended further its march south, briefly piercing the 147.00 support for the first time since early October. The Average Cash Earnings, Current Account, Bank Lending, the preliminary Coincident Index and the Leading Economic Index, as well as the Eco Watchers Survey, are all due on March 10, seconded by GDP figures, Machine Tool Orders, and Household Spending figures, all expected on March 11. Japan’s Producer Prices and the BSI Large Manufacturing index will be released on March 12. The usual weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures are expected on March 13.

Despite the selling bias prevailed in the latter part of the week, AUD/USD managed to partially reverse the previous week’s pullback and end around the 0.6300 zone. The Consumer Confidence Index tracked by Westpac, and NAB’s Business Confidence are due on March 11 The final Building Permits and Private House Approvals will be published on March 13.

Anticipating Economic Perspectives: Voices on the Horizon

• The ECB’s Lagarde and Nagel will speak on March 12.
• The RBA’s Jones speaks on March 13.

Central Banks: Upcoming Meetings to Shape Monetary Policies

• The BoC and the NBP will meet on March 12.