Forecasting the upcoming week: All the attention will be on US CPI

The US dollar (USD) traded on a positive foot this week, managing to reverse part of its recent strong decline amid the resumption of the tariff narrative and shrinking chances of a Fed rate cut later in July.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to monthly peaks on Friday, faltering just ahead of the key 98.00 barrier. The Inflation Rate will be the salient event on July 15, seconded by the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. Producer Prices are expected on July 16 alongside the usual weekly MBA Mortgage Applications, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Capacity Utilisation, the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles, and the Fed Beige Book. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on July 17, followed by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Export and Import Prices, Retail Sales, the NAHB Housing Market Index, Business Inventories, and TIC Flows. Housing Starts, Building Permits, and the preliminary U-Mich Consumer Sentiment will wrap up the docket on July 18.

EUR/USD surrendered some gains and slipped back to the negative territory on a weekly basis despite holding on to the 1.1700 region. The ZEW’s Economic Sentiment in Germany and the euro area comes on July 15, seconded by the Industrial Production in the bloc. The EMU’s Balance of Trade results are due on July 16, while the final Inflation Rate in Euroland will be at the centre of the debate on July 17. Germany’s Producer Prices and EMU’s Current Account and Construction Output are expected on July 18.

A gloomy week saw GBP/USD retreat to two-week lows and revisit the sub-1.3600 region, building on the previous week’s retracement amid UK fiscal jitters and the strong US Dollar. The BRC Retail Sales Monitor is due on July 15, while the Inflation Rate will take centre stage on July 16 and the UK labour market report will be in the spotlight on July 17.

USD/JPY left behind two weekly declines in a row to reclaim the 147.00 hurdle and beyond on Friday. Machinery Orders, Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production, and the Tertiary Industry Index will all be released on July 14. On July 17 will come the Reuters Tankan Index, Balance of Trade results, and the weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures. Japan’s Inflation Rate will be published on July 18.

AUD/USD retreated marginally on Friday, although not before hitting new yearly tops in the boundaries of the 0.6600 barrier. The Westpac Consumer Confidence comes on July 15, while Consumer Inflation Expectations and the key Australian jobs report are due on July 17.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

The ECB’S Cipollone speaks on July 14.

The ECB’s Buch and the Fed’s Barr, Bowman, and Collins will all speak on July 15 along with the BoE’s Bailey.

The Fed’s Logan, Hammack, and Barr are due to speak on July 16.

The Fed’s Williams, Daly, Kugler, and Cook speak on July 17.

The Fed’s Waller speaks on July 18, followed by the ECB’s Nagel.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

The BI meets on July 16 (act. 5.50% vs. 5.25% exp.).