Forecasting the upcoming week: A key week will feature the Fed meeting, Trump’s trade deadline, and Nonfarm Payrolls

Despite the recovery in the second half of the week, the US Dollar (USD) ended this week on a downward trajectory, reversing two consecutive advances. It was a week dominated by the trade narrative as well as the Fed-White House effervescence, with no end in sight to either of them.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained unable to revert the strong decline seen in the first half of the week despite US yields regaining the upward bias amid decent progress on the trade front. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index kickstarts the calendar on July 28. On July 29 will come the advanced Goods Trade Balance results, seconded by Wholesale Inventories, the FHFA’s House Price Index, JOLTs Job Openings, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence, the Dallas Fed Services Index, and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. The ADP Employment Change report is due on July 30, alongside another revision of the Q2 GDP Growth Rate, Pending Home Sales, the usual weekly MBA Mortgage Applications, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on July 31, followed by Challenger Job Cuts, the Chicago PMI, Personal Income, Personal Spending, and inflation figures tracked by the PCE. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, and the final U-Mich Consumer Sentiment will all wrap up the docket on August 1.

EUR/USD managed to claw back some gains on the weekly chart, faltering just ahead of the 1.1800 barrier, despite the fresh downside pressure emerging in the latter part of the week. The ECB’s Consumer Inflation Expectations will be released on July 29. Germany’s Retail Sales and the flash Q2 GDP Growth Rate are due on July 30, seconded by the EMU’s preliminary Q2 GDP Growth Rate, Economic Sentiment, Consumer Inflation Expectations, and the final Consumer Confidence print. The German labour market report is due on July 31 followed by the advanced Inflation Rate, and the Unemployment Rate in the euro area. The final HCOB Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and the euro bloc are expected on August 1, followed by the EMU’s advanced Inflation Rate.

In quite volatile trading, GBP/USD closed the week with slight gains in the low-1.3400s, although enough to revert three consecutive weekly pullbacks. The CBI Distributive Trades will come on July 28. On July 29, the BoE will publish its M4 Money Supply figures, Consumer Credit, and Net Lending to Individuals, all seconded by Mortgage Approvals and Mortgage Lending. The Nationwide Housing Prices are expected on August 1, followed by the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.

USD/JPY closed the week with humble losses, approaching the 148.00 hurdle following two drops in a row. Flash Industrial Production figures will be published on July 31 along with Retail Sales, weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures, Consumer Confidence, Housing Starts, and Construction Orders. The Unemployment Rate, and the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI are expected on August 1.

A very positive week saw AUD/USD advance to fresh multi-month highs north of 0.6600 the figure, although relinquishing some ground afterwards. The Inflation Rate alongside the Monthly CPI Indicator are due on July 30. Retail Sales will come on July 31 ahead of Building Permits, Private House Approvals, Import and Export Prices, and Private Sector Credit figures. The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Producer Prices, and Commodity Prices will close the weekly calendar on August 1.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

• The RBA’s Hauser will speak on July 31.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

• The BoC meets on July 30 (act. 2.75% vs. 2.75% exp.), followed by the Fed (act. 4.25%-4.50% vs. 4.25%-4.50% exp.).
• The BoJ will decide on rates on July 31 (act. 0.50% vs. 0.50% exp.), seconded by the SARB (act. 7.25% vs. 7.25% exp.).