FOMC week: Dollar tension builds as traders bet on 25 bps cut

CPI soft, but market focus shifts to the Fed

Last week’s CPI print (Oct 24) showed continued disinflation — Headline CPI rose 0.3% MoM (vs 0.4%), Core CPI up 0.2% MoM (vs 0.3%), and both readings steady at 3.0% YoY.

Normally, a softer inflation report would strengthen bets for rate cuts and pressure the dollar, but this time the market had already priced in easing.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s now a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut at this week’s October 30 FOMC meeting, lowering the Fed Funds Rate from 4.25% → 4.00%.

With the decision essentially locked in, the real volatility trigger will be Powell’s tone during the press conference and the advance GDP data later that night.

FOMC week preview: The calm before the catalyst

This week’s triple-header of high-impact releases will define the dollar’s path into November:

• Thursday, Oct 30 | 2:00 AM – Fed Interest Rate Decision (Expected: Cut to 4.0%).
• Thursday, Oct 30 | 2:30 AM – Fed Press Conference (Powell’s tone = key market trigger).
• Thursday, Oct 30 | 8:30 PM – US GDP Growth Rate (Advance Q3) (Forecast: 3.0% vs. 3.8% previous).

With a cut already priced in, traders are now fixated on forward guidance.

If Powell emphasizes a “wait-and-assess” stance, the dollar could rebound from support, but if he signals further easing, DXY may break below 98.30 and start a new bearish leg.

USD narrative: Compression builds as Fed week arrives

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains in a holding pattern near 98.9, reflecting equilibrium between two forces:

• Policy Easing: Pressures USD lower as yields soften.
• Data Uncertainty: Keeps USD supported until GDP and Fed signals confirm direction.

With the government shutdown delaying major reports, traders are relying heavily on this week’s FOMC and GDP combo for clarity.

Expect volatility spikes, particularly if Powell surprises on the policy outlook.

Bullish scenario – Relief rally before the fade

In this scenario, DXY breaks above 99.139, triggering short-covering as traders react to a less-dovish Fed tone.

A short-term bullish expansion could follow toward 99.70–99.90, especially if Powell signals a “pause after this cut” or downplays the pace of future easing.

However, as shown in the projection, this move is likely to fade later, forming a lower high near the 99.70–100.00 zone before sellers regain control.

That would confirm a relief rally rather than a trend reversal.

Triggers:

• Break and close above 99.30.
• Powell signals limited cuts ahead.
• Treasury yields stabilize or rebound.

Targets:

• First leg: 99.70.
• Second leg (exhaustion): 100.00–100.20.

Invalidation: Close back below 99.00 after breakout.

Bearish scenario – Post-FOMC breakdown and trend continuation

If Powell doubles down on a dovish tone or GDP prints weaker than 3%, DXY could reject resistance and collapse below support (98.782) — marking the start of a fresh bearish phase.

The sequence would confirm that the relief bounce has completed, leading to lower-high formation and potential continuation toward 98.00–97.70 levels.

This move would align with markets pricing in additional rate cuts beyond October and renewed risk-on appetite across equities and metals.

Triggers:

• Failure to reclaim 99.10–99.30.
• FOMC delivers dovish guidance or GDP miss.
• Sustained break below 98.78.

Targets:

• Initial drop: 98.30.
• Extended move: 97.80–97.50.

Invalidation: Recovery and close above 99.20.

Final thoughts

The U.S. Dollar stands at a critical juncture — caught between softening inflation, a priced-in rate cut, and the anticipation of Powell’s forward guidance.

This week’s FOMC meeting and GDP data aren’t just routine calendar events — they represent the market’s reset moment after weeks of stagnation.

For now, the DXY’s compression between 98.78 and 99.13 reflects more patience than panic. Traders are waiting for the confirmation — whether the Fed signals a pause that could trigger a short-term USD rebound, or a deeper easing bias that reopens downside targets below 98.30.

Regardless of direction, volatility is about to return.

FOMC Week often marks the end of quiet ranges and the start of new macro legs, and the dollar’s next move will likely define how EUR/USD, Gold, and global risk sentiment unfold into November.

Until the breakout confirms, the best play remains discipline and readiness — not prediction.

Because in weeks like this, the move after Powell speaks is the one that matters most.