Financing according to the schedule in most of CEE

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

Today, at 10 AM CET, Poland will publish industrial output growth in September, producer prices, employment and wage growth.
Slovakia is expected to publish current account balance as well as the unemployment rate.

Economic developments

Today, we shortly discuss the 2025 financing needs in the region. The year-to-date net issuance in Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia covers their full-year needs in 2025. Further, in Poland, the year-to-date gross issuance already covers the full-year needs, and therefore the Poland’s Ministry of Finance may focus on pre-financing of 2026 financing needs for the remainder of the year. In other above-mentioned countries, issuance to cover upcoming redemptions still needs to be done. Czechia has a relatively large number of bills to refinance in the next couple of months. There is still a preference of the Ministry of Finance for the issuance of short-term papers; however, with chances ending for further rate cuts by the CNB, we expect a gradual return to bond issuance.

Market movements

The long-term yields have declined over last week in most of the CEE countries. In Romania, 10Y yields moved toward 10-month low reflecting fiscal consolidation efforts. Today, Constitutional Court has a meeting scheduled regarding the fiscal package. In Hungary, the bond market was rather stable ahead of central bank meeting planned for Tuesday, while EURHUF moves close to 390. The Hungarian forint and the Polish zloty have appreciated against euro last week. Slovakia has planned to sell several government papers on Monday. Other than that, Czechia, Romania and Poland have government auctions scheduled this week.

Download The Full CEE Macro Daily

Author

Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

At Erste Group we greatly value transparency. Our Investor Relations team strives to provide comprehensive information with frequent updates to ensure that the details on these pages are always current.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.