Financial Astrology: Whither stock markets Pre-October?

1. AUGUST MARKETS                                                                   

2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS

3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES                        

4. QUOTES

5. ON THE WEB

6. LETTERS

 

1.WHITHER STOCK MARKETS Pre-October?

August markets are expected to continue to be highly volatile. As traders we will try to be prepared for market’s up and downs, while as investors, we will simply ignore most of the trading noise by relaxing upstate at our summer cottage. Our last tweet and special Wall Street, Next week alert last week is already in good profit:

 

Brave Swing Traders May wish to take a punt

Investors may wish to first buy a desired undervalued stock.

We expect markets up in October, that is then and this is now- so keep Money management rules front and center as markets good choose to panic.

Note: We are carefully watching China but are more optimistic than most about HK.

 

OUR VIEWS

Unless/until there is REAL US/China Trade deal progress, markets will be TRADING MARKETS.

We are just starting to nibble long both as investors and traders for a currently projected BIG October rally.

We repeat our tweet of August 7:

Right now many may be wishing you took our 4/30 advice to "Sell in May & Go Away". But if not, no worries as US markets projected higher in October. In August expect much traders delight.

 

Proper Valuations:

US$ 97.10-98.30

OIL 53-57

SILVER 16-17.50

DJIA 25800-26500

SP 2880-2980

NASDAQ 7800 <>8050

 

IMHO “Improper” Valuations

US 10 Year Bond  < 1.80

TIPS  > 114

COPPER < 3.20 

BITCOIN > 8000

GOLD > 1500

BP < 125

 

FIRST EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):

Sell SP 2954,  Sell 2945 KACHING: Both Covered 2840!

SECOND EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):

Sell SP 2888, Sell 2880 KACHING: 2812 & 2750 Buy Gold 1286, 1280 KACHING 1400, 1410

THIRD EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS)

Sell SP 2954, Sell 2964, & 3000; KACHING Closed 2940 & 2925 & 2925 Buy Copper 270, 266 & 260

H2 2019 POSITIONAL TRADING: 

Copper 274, 266 & [292 Copper open from H1 2019]

 

Please Note: In August Wall Street, Next Week will be bi-monthly not weekly. 

HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: Bond Market Keeps Telling Us How Clueless Global Officials Are

 

 

KEY DATES:       August 19, 23-26

DJIA:                   25800 SUPPORT R1 2600  R2 26580 R3 27000 R4 27500 

SPX:                    2880 PIVOT R1 2910 R2 2933 R3 2958 R4 3000 R5 3030 

NASDAQ:            7800 SUPPORT/PIVOT  R1 8000 R2 8200 R3 8350

GOLD:                 1525 PIVOT 1550 RESISTANCE  S1 1500  S2 1480  S3 1450 S4 1425 S5 1400

SILVER:              17 PIVOT 17.50 RESISTANCE S1 16.80 S2 16.50 S3 16.25 S4 16  S5 15.80

OIL:                     55 PIVOT 52 SUPPORT  60 RESISTANCE

COPPER:           STEADY ACCUMULATE: 2020 à 3.50+

US 10 year          WATCH

BITCOIN:            10000 SUPPORT? 12400 RESISTANCE

 

2018 CLOSE:          DJIA 23327 SPX  2506 & NASDAQ 6635

2017 CLOSE:          DJIA 24719 SPX  2673 & NASDAQ 6903

2016 CLOSE:          DJIA 19762 SPX  2238 & NASDAQ 5383

AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1400

THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.

2.China's investors are piling into Hong Kong shares via Stock Connect channel in the longest shopping spree in 18 months

Stock selection remains important. We recommend buying stocks sporting strong cash flows, sound balance sheets and growing dividends.

Actively managed portfolios will continue to deservedly outperform index funds in current bifurcated markets.

 

3. Gold-Is-Too-Pricey-Look-At-Platinum-and-Silvers

HW: True at $1468 gold, more true today with gold over $1500. We plan to accumulate Silver if good weakness for a Fall rally. 

 

Copper is currently the most undervalued commodity we track. Below 12/31/2018 close of 2.63 it is a long term STEAL.

2.58 support is currently holding; $2.80 is overhead resistance. But sometime this year (last week?) current prices will be seem like dream wish list

Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: COPX) to copper miners.

 

Gold bugs are finally excited now that more generalist investors are beginning to join the party:  Gold bull’s forecasts for $1500 were right [not by me] & calls $1600 gold are more frequent.

We believe gold valuations will largely sport above Fair Value into the Year of the Earth Rat (2020).

Just as it was undervalued for a long time, it CAN and is likely to be overvalued for a LONG time.  While fundamentally gold is currently overvalued, later in August and in much of the Fall, the astro is positive for gold.

We advise precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection and selectively add SUMMER 2019.

• Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
• For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!

 

Gold FV $1400 = Commodity FV: 1358 + Currency FV: 1388 + Inflation Metal FV: 1366 + Crisis FV: 1488.

INVESTORS: We plan to stay LONG in H2 2019 (recommending a precious metal sector buy/hold rating and occasional hedging, selling or profit taking).

However as traders we may periodically short gold $1466+. For silver our best selling numbers above $17.50ish resistance is $18-20.

 

4. Yesterday’s [8/7] roller coaster provides further evidence that volatility is very much back in markets, and while the near-term trends in both equities and Treasury yields have begun to stabilize slightly, trends remain sharply lower and it wouldn’t take much to turn both trends back to the downside for a retest of recent lows.”

Mark Newton, technical analyst, Newton Advisors 

HW: Agreed.

 

“The 2-10 inversion is sending a massively negative signal that stocks are having a difficult time ignoring.”

Adam Crisafulli, a J.P. Morgan managing director JP Morgan

HW: Yes this certainly got the market’s attention, but there is reason for traders to believe at last an interim Low in Bond Yields may in place.

“At a very high level, people are really now genuinely concerned about a recession in the U.S. in the next two years, and I think that’s fair.”

 Joe Mallen, chief investment officer, Helios Asset Management

HW: I agree.

 

5. What Stock Markets Did After Crises Like Hong Kong’s

Investors Should Hold Stocks in Sell-Off, Levitt Says

Why-the-aging-bull-market-is-a-worry

 

6. READER: So I you’re long throughout the Fall months? Do you see a possible recession coming in the winter like around mid-December?

HW: No I am long until stopped out OCO mid to late August.  Then will prepare first for a down move [which happened last week], and then an UP move for October. 

Always I have yet to decide what to do depending on:

1) China  2) Fed  3) Iran etc.  Currently we are long again.

 

READER: .  If copper breaches $2.50 speculators can have lots more fun - and the world's 1,000s of fabricators are loving every minute of it. 
HW: Yes but we should be holding 2.55 and this week can be a/the bottom intermediate term!

Market Note: While hardly out of the woods, So far so good.