WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK September 2, 2019
1. AUGUST MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
5. ON THE WEB
1.Whither Stock Markets Pre-October? How High is Up? How Low is Down?
SPX 3000 or Higher? SPX 2800 or Lower? If you sold in May & didn’t yet get back in August, should you re-enter in September or Wait? Unless you closely track the horoscopes of President Trump, Chairman Xi AND Fed Chairman Powell, the RIGHT answer is probably unknown.
As expected some markets are down Sunday/Monday on the Tariff news, but the despite High Risk, we are inclined to make short term trading buys Tuesday/Wednesday by and assuming key support zones hold. (Watchful stops). Alternately, and if traded and stopped out, we stand aside for a delicious entry on news EITHER direction.
We continue to selectively nibble long stocks as investors for a projected Fall/October rally to retest YTD market highs.
Unless/until there is REAL US/China Trade deal progress, markets will continue be TRADING MARKETS.
It is quite possible the recent bottom IS in, but also possible it is not!
FOMC Week will be Rock & Roll regardless of what the Fed does or does not do or say!
NASDAQ 7800 <>8050
IMHO “Improper” Valuations
US 10 Year Bond < 1.75
TIPS > 115
Silver < 16 or >18
COPPER < 3.20
BITCOIN > 8000
GOLD > 1500
BP < 125
FIRST EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):
Sell SP 2954, Sell 2945 KACHING: Both Covered 2840!
SECOND EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):
Sell SP 2888, Sell 2880 KACHING: 2812 & 2750 Buy Gold 1286, 1280 KACHING 1400, 1410
THIRD EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS)
Sell SP 2954, Sell 2964, & 3000; KACHING Closed 2940 & 2925 & 2925 Buy Copper 270, 266 & 260
H2 2019 POSITIONAL TRADING:
Copper 274, 266 & [292 Copper open from H1 2019]
KEY DATES: SEPTEMBER 3, 4, 16-20
DJIA: 26000 SUPPORT R 26580 R2 27000 R3 27500
SPX: 2910 PIVOT R1 2933 R2 2958 R3 3000 R4 3030
NASDAQ: 7800 SUPPORT/PIVOT R1 8050 R2 8200 R3 8350
GOLD: 1525 PIVOT 1550 RESISTANCE S1 1500 S2 1480 S3 1450 S4 1425 S5 1400
SILVER: 17.50 PIVOT 18.50 RESISTANCE S1 18 S2 17.50 S3 17
OIL: 55 PIVOT 52 SUPPORT 58 RESISTANCE
COPPER: STEADY ACCUMULATE: 2020 à 3.50+
US 10 year WATCH
BITCOIN: 9200 SUPPORT? 12400 RESISTANCE
2018 CLOSE: DJIA 23327 SPX 2506 & NASDAQ 6635
2017 CLOSE: DJIA 24719 SPX 2673 & NASDAQ 6903
2016 CLOSE: DJIA 19762 SPX 2238 & NASDAQ 5383
AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1402
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. Stock selection remains important. We recommend buying stocks sporting strong cash flows, sound balance sheets and growing dividends.
Actively managed portfolios will continue to deservedly outperform index funds in current bifurcated markets.
3. Silver is now overvalued by our measure and faces strong resistance at current prices. However that does not mean it cannot go to $20 or even $25 given many newbie investors.
Copper remains the most undervalued commodity we track. Below 12/31/2018 close of 2.63 it is a long term STEAL, especially If when XI/Trump make nice.
Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: COPX) to copper miners.
Gold bugs are finally excited now that more generalist investors are beginning to join the party: Gold bull’s forecasts for $1500 were right [not by me] & calls $1600 gold are more frequent.
We believe gold valuations will largely sport above Fair Value into the Year of the Earth Rat (2020).
Just as it was undervalued for a long time, it CAN and is likely to be overvalued for a LONG time. While fundamentally gold is currently overvalued, later in August and in much of the Fall, the astro is positive for gold.
We advise precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection and selectively add SUMMER 2019.
Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
Gold FV $1402 = Commodity FV: 1358 + Currency FV: 1388 + Inflation Metal FV: 1362 + Crisis FV: 1500.
INVESTORS: We plan to stay LONG in H2 2019 (recommending a precious metal sector buy/hold rating and occasional hedging, selling or profit taking).
However as traders we may periodically short gold $1466+. For silver our best selling numbers above $17.50ish resistance is $18-20.
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