In addition to its blather about interest rates, the Fed also made numerous economic projections.

Economic Projections

Please consider the Economic Projections of FOMC Participants under their individual assumptions of appropriate monetary policy, September 2020.

Fed's GDP, Unemployment, PCE Inflation Projections

GDP Projection

The Fed believes GDP will only contract 3.7% in 2020 then rebound 4% in 2021, and 3% in 2022.

Do you believe this?

Unemployment Projection

The Fed believes the Unemployment Rate will be 7.6% in 2020, 5.5% in 2021, and 4.6% in 2022.

Do you believe this?

PCE Inflation Projection

The Fed believes Core Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation (excluding food and energy) will be 1.5% in 2020, 1.7% in 2021, and 1.8% in 2022.

Do you believe this?

GDP Poll

fxsoriginal

Unemployment Poll

fxsoriginal

PCE Poll

fxsoriginal

My Take

  • GDP: I will take the under. Way under. Much of the rebound was due to $600 pandemic stimulus checks that expired on July 25. This will be a huge headwind going forward.
  • Unemployment: I am leery of games with the participation rate and labor force but I will go with higher.
  • PCE : This one is humorous. For months, the Fed has committed not only to 2% but letting inflation run hotter than expected for some time to make up for needed lost inflation. Yet the Fed admits it will not hit its targets until 2023. PCE inflation, as measured, is a joke. So perhaps the Fed is on target.

Also see Fed's Blather as Expected, No Hikes Through 2023.

This material is based upon information that Sitka Pacific Capital Management considers reliable and endeavors to keep current, Sitka Pacific Capital Management does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD holds gains above 1.1850 amid tepid market mood

EUR/USD is trading above 1.1850, holding onto recent gains The uptrend, however, at risk as coronavirus cases rise across the Eurozone. New lockdown restrictions may force the ECB to adopt a stronger dovish stance. Focus shifts to Powell's speech, EZ Preliminary PMIs. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD hovers around 1.2950 amid likely virus curbs

GBP/USD stays well bid near  mid-1.2900s following three successive failures to cross 1.3000 during last week. UK’s health authorities mull lockdown restrictions. Chancellor Sunak may extend business support loans. Fedspeak eyed amid a light calendar. 

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY drops to over six-month lows, fast approaching 104.00 mark

USD/JPY witnessed some follow-through selling for the sixth consecutive session on Monday. The USD was being pressured by fading hopes of another round of the fiscal stimulus measures. Resurgent COVID-19 cases benefitted the safe-haven JPY and contributed to the offered tone.

USD/JPY News

Gold jumps back on the bids above $1950 amid risk-aversion

Gold is back on the bids above $1950 amid growing coronavirus fears induced risk aversion. Gold's multi-week consolidation in a narrowing price range could end with a bullish breakout, as a widely-tracked daily chart indicator is about to turn bullish. 

Gold News

WTI buyers attack $41.00 amid US-Iran tension, escalating virus woes

WTI remains heavy below 50-day SMA, drops from $41.18 to begin the week. The energy benchmark keeps trailing 50-day SMA for over two weeks while taking clues from the US-Iran tussle and the coronavirus (COVID-19) headlines. Hopes of further stimulus, China’s optimism favor energy bulls.

Oil News

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures