Fed Minutes Eyed as Markets Recover

Craig Erlam MarketPulse

US futures are trading slightly in the red on Wednesday, paring gains from the previous day as risk appetite continues to improve.

Fed minutes in focus as markets rebound following sell-off

A decent rebound in the US on Tuesday on the back of strong earnings numbers has gone some way to allaying fears about last week’s sell-off. The results are a timely reminder about the strength of the US economy right now and despite the large amount of underlying risk that still exists, investors have plenty to be optimistic about.

Considering the fact that a major contributor to the sell-off appeared to be rising US bond yields – which have come off as risk appetite has returned – today’s FOMC minutes should be very interesting. Given the events of the last couple of weeks, there is a chance that the minutes are a little outdated, but that won’t stop people pouring over them for clues about where exactly we are in the tightening cycle and how much further there is to go.

Powell was a primary catalyst for the spike in yields a couple of weeks ago when he declared that we’re not yet near the neutral rate and could go beyond, which flies in the face of the belief of many that we’re in the latter phase of the tightening cycle. It will be interesting to see whether others share the views of Powell, although we may be better informed by the comments of the many policy makers that are speaking this week, including Lael Brainard today.

The return of grey skies and dark evenings has been a timely metaphor for the mood in Brussels right now

For the UK, this week may be dominated by what’s happening in Brussels but the current state of the economy will also be a focal point for traders, with today’s CPI data being the second of three notable releases. Inflationary pressures moderated once again in September after a brief summer spike that accompanied a surge in activity as consumers made the most of the good weather and the country’s unexpected World Cup success.

The return of grey skies and dark evenings has been a timely metaphor for the mood in Brussels right now, with good will wearing thin and the two camps becoming increasingly hostile towards each other despite only a small number of issues remaining. Theresa May heads to Brussels today in the hope of bridging the divide over these issues but any agreement this week is extremely unlikely with attention now switching to an emergency summit in November.

Author

Craig Erlam

MarketPulse

Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

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