Fed meeting could 'mark formal death' of Fed's easing bias, markets may be disappointed

Today’s meeting could mark the formal death of the Fed's easing bias, rendered inert by building inflationary pressures and the resilience of the US economy and labour market.

We don’t expect new chair Warsh to hint at where rates go from here, however. He's been explicit in the past about his aversion to forward guidance, and that is likely to define his first outing as chair.
On the dots, we expect an upward revision to show no change through 2026, and we do not think the FOMC will go so far as to signal a hike just yet. This could disappoint markets, which are already close to fully pricing in a hike by year-end.

As for Warsh himself, the more interesting story may be institutional rather than monetary.

We will be watching particularly closely for any comments that paint a picture of how he intends to remake the Fed in his own image, particularly any hints on balance sheet reduction and a scaled-back approach to guidance.