Fed decision becomes test of whether 5% Treasuries are monetary or fiscal

EU mid-market update: Fed decision becomes test of whether 5% Treasuries are monetary or fiscal; Bessent insists buybacks worked as long end says otherwise; AI “slowdown” coalition fractures within days.

Notes/observations

- Today’s FOMC is no longer really a 25bp decision; it is a rare dispute over what 5% Treasuries are trying to say. Markets put roughly 93% on a hike to 3.75–4.00%, so the surprise is almost entirely in the SEP, dots and Warsh’s explanation of what comes next. Bessent told Congress yesterday that Treasury’s buyback intervention was successful even though the 10Y rose from roughly 4.8% to above 5%, arguing the relevant counterfactual was where yields might otherwise have gone and blaming much of the move on “global issues.” That gives tonight’s Fed meeting an unusual diagnostic value: if Warsh hikes and the long end rallies, Treasury can argue 5% was largely an inflation/credibility premium; if the 10Y remains around 5% after the Fed tightens, the market is telling Washington that the problem sits further out—fiscal supply, term premium and the duration Treasury itself is issuing. The funds rate can answer inflation; it cannot make investors want thirty-year paper.

- A visibly split FOMC is probably less likely than the pre-meeting scorecard suggests. On public remarks alone, the committee can be sketched at roughly 6 hold / 5 hike / Powell unknown, with Waller was still leaning toward giving disinflation more time while Hammack, Kashkari and Logan bring actual July hike votes and Warsh/Cook complete the hawkish five. But that is not how modern FOMCs usually publish disagreement: once the chair settles on a direction, members who differ mainly on timing often support the package rather than turn a close internal debate into a 7–5 headline. With markets now pricing roughly a 93% chance of +25bp, and Warsh unusually attentive to market prices as information, the path of least institutional resistance may therefore be a hike accompanied by no or only a handful of dissents—not because the private room was one-sided, but because several holders decide that one meeting’s timing matters less than preserving a coherent policy direction. Powell is still the fascinating residual case precisely because he has spent months avoiding public positioning: taken literally, his vote could produce either 7–5 hold or 6–6, and the Fed has no chairman’s casting vote; the closest historical near-miss, in April 1979, would simply have left the existing directive in force. But a 6–6 outcome would be really extraordinary, and even 7–5 would be extremely unusual for a committee that generally tries not to humiliate a new chairman. The more plausible risk for Warsh is almost the reverse: he can probably deliver the hike the market now expects, but he may not be able to endorse the additional tightening already embedded in the curve without sounding much more hawkish than his own reaction function warrants. That leaves room for the most awkward Fed-day outcome of all—a 25bp hike with a relatively tidy vote that markets still read as do+ish because the press conference refuses to validate everything beyond it.

- One underappreciated detail from Bessent’s testimony is what he did not promise. He defended the existing buybacks, called the Treasury market the best-performing major bond market since Trump took office, and said yields reflect global forces; he did not announce a larger buyback envelope, a bill-financed “Bessent Twist,” or a change in long-end auction sizes. That restraint matters because the market spent the previous week daring Treasury to escalate. If 10s remain around 5% after tonight’s Fed decision, November refunding becomes more interesting precisely because Bessent has preserved the optionality rather than spending it yesterday. The absence of a bazooka at the hearing may eventually prove more informative than another defence of the $5.2B operation.

- The UK has almost the inverse problem. August CPI rose to 3.1%, a five-month high, but core stayed at 2.6% for a fourth month and services inflation at 3.4%; tomorrow’s BoE decision is therefore still overwhelmingly expected to be a hold. The more consequential policy change may occur in the balance sheet rather than Bank Rate: reports that the BoE will stop actively selling 20Y and 30Y gilts amount to an admission that QT measured in pounds is a bad description of QT measured in duration. £1 of a 30-year gilt asks private balance sheets to absorb far more rate risk than £1 of a short gilt. The Bank can therefore continue shrinking the APF while quietly removing the most destabilising DV01 from the programme. That distinction matters well beyond Britain: central banks may discover that the maturity of tightening is becoming as important as the quantity when sovereign curves are already under fiscal pressure.

- The proposed AI slowdown lasted roughly long enough to demonstrate why it is so difficult to coordinate one. Zuckerberg has now rejected the Amodei/Altman/Musk logic, arguing that liability and competition give each lab sufficient incentive to slow itself when necessary; Meta says it already delayed its Muse agent for security work and is directing the large majority of its compute toward products rather than recursive self-improvement. At almost the same time, OpenAI says it has been talking with Anthropic and Google DeepMind for several weeks about common safety work, without seeking an antitrust waiver; FTC Chair Ferguson says regulators should be “deeply suspicious” of any attempt to use safety as cover for coordination. The industry has therefore split almost immediately into two models: coordinate frontier pace, or compete normally but internalise safety costs. For semiconductors that is a much better distinction than “AI slows”: Meta’s version preserves capex and redirects compute toward inference/products, while Amodei’s version could actually stretch the cadence of frontier training runs.

- OpenAI’s reported new $1.2T private round would likely fit Sarah Friar’s recent financing logic. Friar said in May that the $122B raise gave OpenAI “a lot of optionality,” but explicitly left the door open to more capital if demand, revenue growth, cash generation and the gap between required and affordable compute justified it; in August she told staff that OpenAI should become public in 2027, or earlier only if the business continued to “inflect.” That inflection may now be arriving: at Goldman last week she said enterprise revenue grew 32% m/m in July versus 20% for total annualised revenue, consumer/enterprise mix had already reached 50/50 ahead of schedule, and OpenRouter now shows OpenAI usage spending above Anthropic for the first time in more than 2½ years. So another private round before IPO is not simply “delay because markets are difficult”; it would be OpenAI exploiting a post-Astra re-acceleration to reprice itself upward privately while public-market timing stays anchored to 2027. The strategic value is that private capital can be spent on M&A and compute without immediately forcing management to explain every dollar of burn quarter by quarter—exactly the flexibility Friar has said matters when compute commitments are made years before the associated revenue arrives.

- The Barclays/Morgan Stanley/Goldman conference circuit is drawing a much stranger picture than “5% yields are slowing the economy.” JPMorgan sees mid-to-high-teens growth in both Q3 investment-banking fees and markets revenue, J.B. Hunt says freight demand is “incredibly strong” and has finally inflected higher for the first time since 2023, yet Dollar General says even $100K+ households no longer feel affluent and customers are compensating for $4+ gasoline with more trips and smaller baskets. The common thread is not weak demand but migration under pressure. Companies are still raising capital and trading actively; shippers are moving freight, but scarce drivers and expensive diesel are pushing highway volume onto rail, where J.B. Hunt’s eastern intermodal discount to truckload has blown out above 30% versus a normal 10–15%. Consumers are still buying, but they are moving down the price ladder fast enough that DG’s Value Valley comps rose 16% and its $1 seasonal assortment is up 40% y/y. Even J.B. Hunt’s expected 5–10% sequential earnings decline is not coming from disappearing freight—it is the lag between costs that reset immediately and intermodal pricing that catches up roughly two quarters later. That helps reconcile JPMorgan’s optimism with the uglier household anecdotes: the nominal economy is very likly still moving plenty of money and merchandise, but inflation and 5% rates are forcing activity into cheaper channels faster than they are destroying it. Capital markets benefit from the churn, rail takes share from trucking, value retail takes share from mainstream retail—and the margin pain shows up first in whoever cannot reprice quickly enough.

- Washington and Brussels are beginning to describe China with almost the same diagnosis, but not yet the same prescription. Von der Leyen said this morning that Europe’s €1B-per-day goods deficit with China has reached a “tipping point” and is producing a second China shock through deindustrialisation; she also announced a new European vehicle to procure and stockpile critical raw materials, particularly rare earths. Bessent, meanwhile, meets He Lifeng this weekend before the expected September 24 Trump–Xi summit, with China’s external surplus and its financial links to Iran both on the table. The convergence matters: Washington has spent months trying to internationalise its complaint about Chinese excess capacity, and Europe is now supplying its own language for essentially the same problem. But Brussels’ first response is stockpiles, procurement and trade-defence tools, not American-style blanket tariffs. Xi therefore arrives next week facing something broader than a U.S. bilateral grievance even if the Western remedies remain badly uncoordinated.

- Friday’s BoJ hike is almost fully priced; what is not priced cleanly is how Ueda describes 1.25%. That rate would be Japan’s highest in 31 years and, more importantly, puts policy inside the BoJ’s own estimated 1.1–2.5% nominal neutral range for the first time. Until now, every hike could still be described as removing obviously abnormal accommodation. At 1.25%, that defence starts running out: subsequent moves require an actual judgment about where neutral sits. Ueda therefore faces an unpleasant communications triangle—stay vague and yen sellers may conclude the recent rally outran policy; sound aggressively hawkish and the already-fragile JGB long end reprices terminal rates; declare 1.25% near neutral and he risks reviving the very carry trade the Bank is trying to extinguish. The next Japanese rate is more conceptually difficult than the current one.

- Cross-asset: Asia finally stabilised after four down sessions: MSCI Asia ex-Japan +~0.5%, Nikkei +0.3%, with Korea/Taiwan firmer while China remained soft. Europe: STOXX 600 +0.4%, DAX +0.4%, helped by lower oil and a rebound in banks/tech. UST 10Y ~4.99%, just below Tuesday’s >5% break; DXY ~99.6, EUR/USD ~1.155, USD/JPY ~155.5. Commodities: Brent ~-1.1% around $107.5, WTI ~-1.5% around $104.2 after API showed an unexpected +7.1M-barrel U.S. crude build; gold +0.8% around $4,327.

Asia

- Japan Aug Trade Balance: -¥1,106T v -¥1.056Te; Exports Y/Y: 19.3% v 18.4%e; Imports Y/Y: 28.0% v 26.3%e.

- Japan July Core Machine Orders M/M: -3.7% v -1.2%; Y/Y: 11.2% v 9.6%e.

- Australia Aug Westpac Leading Index M/M: -0.04 v +0.02% prior.

- New Zealand Q2 Current Account Balance (NZD): -1.7B v -2.6Be.

- PBoC Gov Pan signaled a major shift in China's monetary policy framework, saying the central bank to rely less on loan growth targets and place greater emphasis on interest rates as its primary policy tool.

- Japan PM Takaichi expected to make only limited changes in an upcoming cabinet reshuffle, retaining key figures including Fin Min Katayama, Foreign Min Motegi, and Defense Min Koizumi.

Global conflict/tensions

- US said to prepare selling ~$2.8B in 2,000lb bombs to Israel.

Europe

- Resolution Foundation said to warn UK PM Burnham that must raise taxes or cut spending in budget as fiscal headroom has narrowed to just £5-10B.

- The Times Shadow MPC believes the Bank of England should keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote.

Americas

- US Tsy Sec Bessent is scheduled to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in New York on Sunday (Sept 20th) for a final round of economic and trade talks ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit in Washington on September 24th.

Trade

- US-China said to be discussing tariff reductions on a range of goods ahead of next week's Trump-Xi summit.

Energy

- Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories: +7.1M v -0.3M prior.

- US policymakers said to be considering potential restrictions on diesel exports.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [ FTSE +0.36% at 10,697.00, DAX -0.09% at 25,400.56, CAC-40 +0.13% at 8,100.74, IBEX-35 +0.12% at 19,580.21, FTSE MIB +0.44% at 51,784.50, SMI +0.34% at 13,856.50, S&P 500 Futures +0.16%].

Market focal points/key themes: European equities posted a mixed but mostly positive session on Wednesday, with the FTSE 100 up 0.36%, the FTSE MIB gaining 0.44%, the CAC 40 rising 0.13% and the Euro Stoxx 50 advancing 0.19%, while the DAX slipped 0.09%, as markets stabilized after Tuesday’s drop to three-month lows amid elevated oil prices, Middle East risks and high yields. The tentative rebound unfolded in a holding pattern ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, where futures priced a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point hike—the first since mid-2023—following the ECB’s recent increase to 2.50% and with Brent holding above $107 after Saudi pipeline attacks. The most notable individual movers were Soitec, surging 10% on a JPMorgan upgrade to Overweight, and Barratt Redrow, climbing 8% after beating pretax-profit forecasts and confirming a £400m capital-return plan, against Marks & Spencer’s 4.5% decline as its prior grocery-sales rally faded under broader UK consumer pressure. Attention focused on Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting guidance for any signal on whether the move is a one-off energy-volatility adjustment or the start of a broader tightening cycle, while the U.S. 10-year yield lingered near multi-year highs after briefly topping 5%.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Barratt Redrow [BTRW.UK] +8.0% (FY adjusted pretax profit of about £560m topped roughly £540m consensus, with the £400m FY27 capital-return plan confirmed), Marks & Spencer [MKS.UK] -4.5% (gives back Tuesday’s grocery-sales-data rally amid weak follow-through and broader pressure on UK consumer shares), Vistry Group [VTY.UK] +4.0%, Persimmon [PSN.UK] +3.5%, Taylor Wimpey [TW.UK] +3.0% (positive housebuilding read-through from Barratt Redrow's profit beat and capital-return plan, alongside easing gilt yields).

- Consumer staples: Unilever [ULVR.UK] -1.5%, J Sainsbury [SBRY.UK] -1.5%, Tesco [TSCO.UK] -1.0% (UK consumer staples lag after August CPI held at 3.1% and producer-price inflation accelerated, sharpening household-demand and margin concerns).

- Financials: Lloyds Banking Group [LLOY.UK] +2.0%, Barclays [BARC.UK] +1.5%, HSBC [HSBA.UK] +1.5% (banks advance as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase and still-elevated bond yields support the net-interest-income outlook).

- Industrials: Stellantis [STLAM.IT] -1.5% (Berenberg downgraded to Hold from Buy and cut PT to €5.10 from €7.80 on margin concerns and inventory-destocking headwinds), BMW [BMW.DE] +1.0% (Berenberg upgraded to Buy from Hold and raised PT to €75 from €69, citing a firmer expectations base and peak investment having passed), Norsk Hydro [NHY.NO] +0.5% (shares edged higher despite RBC downgrading to Sector Perform from Outperform and cutting PT to NOK100 from NOK120).

- Technology: OVHcloud [OVH.FR] +4.0%, Jenoptik [JEN.DE] +3.5%, ams OSRAM [AMS.CH] +3.0%, STMicroelectronics [STMPA.FR] +2.0%, VAT Group [VACN.CH] +1.0% (European chip and AI-infrastructure names rebound after gains for Samsung and SK Hynix in Asia).

- Telecom: Vodafone [VOD.UK] -1.0% (reported to lose more than EUR1bn of potential earnings following Patrick Drahi’s exit from OXG).

- Materials: Fresnillo [FRES.UK] +3.0%, Antofagasta [ANTO.UK] +2.5%, Anglo American [AAL.UK] +2.0%, BHP [BHP.UK] +1.5% (precious- and base-metals miners track gains in gold, silver and copper).

Speakers

- EU Commission Pres Von der Leyen delivered her State of Union speech in EU Parliament and noted that a stronger and independent Europe was now emerging.

- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Business Survey: Economic situation has improved since last spring. Demand has strengthened.

- Germany Economic Ministry: Continuously assessing the gas sector; maintaining an open dialogue with market participants.

- Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Gov Karahan noted that global central banks were rediscovering gold.
Turkey Fin Min Simsek noted that disinflation was not at the desired pace.

- Russia govt said to be plans to extend diesel-export ban through Oct.

- China's Foreign Min Wang Yi stated after meeting his Iranian counterpart that encouraged Iran and US to exercise rationality and urged all parties to take effective measures to reopen Strait of Hormuz. Did not want to see regional tensions spill over into Yemen and the Red Sea.

Currencies

- USD was slightly softer in quiet trading with focus on the upcoming FOMC rate decision with the markets currently pricing over a 90% chance of a 25 basis-point rate hike by the Fed. Dealers noted that Fed Gov Warsh would need to match his tough rhetoric on bringing down inflation with policy action or risk undermining his credibility about controlling inflation. Question arising if the Fed could hike rates with Warsh not voting for one and what would be the USD impact of such an outcome.

- EUR/USD at 1.1550 by mid-session.

- GBP/USD staying below 1.35 ahead of Thurs BOE rate decision. UK Aug CPI data did hit a 5-month high. Concerns simmering that annual inflation was on course to peak at a little over 4% 2027. Markets seeing the BOE holding steady in Sept for forecasting 4 hikes through 2027.

- USD/JPY at 155 area. Dealers noted that a hike in Sept was widely priced in with the focus on its guidance on the pace going forward.

- Oil prices stalled which helped to cap bond yields for the time being. The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.54%, France 10-year Oat at 4.52% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.36%; 10-year Treasury yield: 5.00%; 10-year JGB: 2.98%.

Economic data

- (UK) Aug CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.1%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.6%e; CPI Services Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.5%e; CPIH Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.2%e.

- (UK) Aug RPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.5%e; RPI-X (ex-mortgage Interest Payments) Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.1% prior; Retail Price Index: 421.6 v 421.9e.

- (UK) Aug PPI Input M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 6.1% v 5.4%e.

- (UK) Aug PPI Output M/M: 0.7% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.3%e.

- (SE) Sweden Aug Unemployment Rate: 8.5% v 7.8% prior; Unemployment Rate (seasonally adj): 8.9% v 8.6%e; Trend Unemployment Rate: 8.7% v 8.7% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Aug Household Consumption M/M: 0.7% v 1.6% prior; Y/Y: 4.0%v 4.3% prior.

- (HU) Hungary July Average Gross Wages Y/Y: 7.3% v 7.7%e.

- (CZ) Czech Aug PPI Industrial M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e.

- (ZA) South Africa Q3 BER Inflation Expectations: 4.4% v 4.4% prior.

- (EU) ECB Wage Tracker: Raises 2026 expected wage growth from +2.6% to +2.7%.

- (IT) Italy Aug Final CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.5% prelim; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.3% prelim.

- (IT) Italy Aug Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prelim; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.2% prelim; CPI Index (ex-tobacco): 103.7 v 103.1 prior.

- (UK) July ONS House Price Index Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.5% prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone July Industrial Production M/M: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.1%e.

- (EU) Euro Zone Q2 Final Labour Costs Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.1% prelim.

Fixed income issuance

- (IN) India sold total INR240B vs. INR240B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month.

- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK3.65B in 2028 and 2035 DGB Bonds.

- (SE) Sweden sold SEK5.0B vs. SEK5.0B indicated in 2.75% Feb 2037 SGB bonds.

Looking ahead

- (AR) Argentina Aug UTDT Leading Indicator: No est v -0.7% prior.

- (CO) Colombia Aug Consumer Confidence: No est v 20.7 prior.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell combined €2.5B in 2047 and 2056 Bunds.

- 05:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell €1.0-1.25B in 12-month Bills.

- 05:30 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of next bond auction (held on Tuesdays).

- 06:00 (IL) Israel Q2 Preliminary GDP Annualized (2nd reading): No est v 15.4% advance.

- 06:00 (IL) Israel Q2 Current Account Balance: No est v -$0.1B prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland July Trade Balance: No est v €3.5B prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland July Property Prices M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.6% prior.

- 06:00 (EU) European Union to sell combined €4.5B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell CZK2.0B in 2038 floating rate bonds.

- 06:00 (RU) Russia to sell OFZ Bonds.

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Sept 11th: No est v -2.7% prior.

- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa July Retail Sales M/M: +0.7%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.6% prior.

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Sept FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: +1.2%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.0% prior.

- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank (BCCh) Sept Minutes.

- 08:00 (PL) Poland Aug CPI Core M/M: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.3%e v 3.1% prior.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil July Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: -0.2%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 2.4% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:15 (CA) Canada Aug Annualized Housing Starts: 240.0Ke v 229.1K prior.

- 08:15 (EU) ECB’s Vujcic (Croatia).

- 08:30 (US) Aug Advance Retail Sales M/M: +0.8%e v -0.6% prior; Retail Sales (ex-auto) M/M: +0.5%e v -0.3% prior; Retail Sales (ex-auto/gas): +0.4%e v -0.2% prior; Retail Sales (Control Group): +0.4%e v -0.4% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Aug Import Price Index M/M: +0.5%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 6.5%e v 5.9% prior; Import Price Index (ex-petroleum) M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Aug Export Price Index M/M: +0.4%e v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 8.2% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Sept New York Fed Services Business Activity: No est v 0.5 prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada July Building Permits M/M: -4.8%e v +18.5% prior.

- 09:00 (NL) ECB’s Elderson (Netherlands).

- 10:00 (US) Sept NAHB Housing Market Index: 34e v 35 prior.

- 10:00 (US) July Business Inventories: 0.8%e v 0.0% prior.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories.

- 10:30 (US) Atlanta Fed GDP Now: Cuts/Raises Q3 GDP estimate from 4.4% to %.

- 11:00 (CO) Colombia July Retail Sales Y/Y: 10.6%e v 14.7% prior.

- 11:00 (CO) Colombia July Manufacturing Production Y/Y: -0.6%e v +4.1% prior; Industrial Production Y/Y: 2.1%e v 3.9% prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 17-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Aug PPI M/M: No est v -2.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.6% prior.

- 13:00 (EU) ECB Chief Lagarde.

- 13:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Summary of Deliberations.

- 14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise Target Range by 25bps to 3.75-4.00% range.

- 14:00 (US) SEP :Projections.

- 14:30 (US) Fed Chair Warsh post rate decision press conference.

- 16:00 (US) July Total Net TIC Flows: No est v $133.5B prior; Net Long-term TIC Flows: No est v $172.7B prior.

- 17:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Selic Target Rate by 25bps to 13.75%.

- 18:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.1%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 1.5% prior.

- 20:30 (SG) Singapore Aug Non-oil Domestic Exports Y/Y: 35.1%e v 24.2% prior; Electronic Exports Y/Y: No est v 112.0% prior.

- 21:00 (CN) China Aug Swift Global Payments (CNY): No est v 3.1% prior.

- 22:00 (NZ) New Zealand to sell combined NZ$450M in 2032, 2034 and 2054 bonds.

- 23:30 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bills.