Events to Look Out For Next Week

Dr. Nektarios Michail HFM

Monday

Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Consumer Price inflation rate is an important measure of changes in the prices of goods and services. Consensus expectations suggest that the inflation rate should stand at 2% YoY in August, with core inflation at 1%, both at the same level as last month.

Tuesday

House Price Index (AUD, GMT 01:30) – House price developments are important, especially for Australia, given that its banks’ well-standing relies on people’s ability to refinance loans on the basis of rising housing valuations. However, Consensus Forecasts suggests that house prices will decrease by 1% QoQ, more than the 0.7% decrease observed in the first quarter of the year.

Wednesday

Interest rate decision (JPY, GMT 02:00) – Event of the Week. With macroeconomic developments still unclear, there is little possibility for an interest rate change by BoJ. However, the statement by Governor Kuroda could offer guidance with regards to the direction of policy actions in the future.

Retail Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Price pressure from the sterling losses since Brexit and better-than-expected GDP results point out to rising price pressures. Consensus expectations suggest an increase of 3.4% YoY, compared to 3.2% last month.

Mario Draghi Speech (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The ECB president is set to speak at a conference in Berlin. As usual, more hackish than expected is good for the currency.

Thursday

Interest rate decision (CHF, GMT 07:30) – With the CHF fighting with overvaluation and the SNB often intervening in the markets there is not much potential for a rate hike, given that it would further appreciate the Swissy.

Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Retail sales are a proxy of spending, indicating where private consumption for the month should lie. Consensus forecast suggests a 0.1% MoM increase for August, a large decline from the 0.9% World Cup-aided growth in July.

Philadephia Fed Manufacturing Survey (USD, GMT 12:30) – The index offers an overview of manufacturing conditions within the region of Philadelphia. Usually, a reading above 0 is considered as improving conditions. Current Consensus forecast stands at 15.

National CPI Index (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Low inflation rates have always been an issue in Japan ever since the 1990s. The Tokyo index showed positive signs in the latest release, with Consensus forecast standing at 0.9% YoY compared to 0.8% in July.

Friday

Markit Services, Manufacturing and Composite index (EUR, GMT 08:00) – No change is expected to be observed from August, with the September Composite index expected to remain at 54.5. As always, anything over 50 should be considered as good news for the outlook.

Retail Sales and CPI Core Inflation (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Both indicators are of high interest, given that the first issues signals about the path of growth while the latter could be indicative of future policy actions.

Author

Dr. Nektarios Michail

HFM

With more than 4 years of experience at the Central Bank of Cyprus where he obtained hands-on experience with real-life economics, Dr Nektarios Michail is a supporter of a balanced approach between science and art when it comes to

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.