EURUSD: 1.2383
EurUsd had a sharp squeeze higher in Europe on Monday, reaching 1.2395, since when it has chopped around below those levels. Tuesday will look to the German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production for guidance, along with assorted Fed speakers.
1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed.
Daily Indicators: Neutral
Weekly Indicators: Possible topping formation.
Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators are mixed but possibly leaning higher today, and on the topside, minor resistance will again be seen at 1.2395/1.2400. Above 1.2400 we could then head towards 1.2415/20 and even towards 1.2470/75. Beyond 1.2500 looks unlikely for now but if wrong, look for a test of 1.2555, the 16 Feb high.
On the downside, the initial support will arrive at 1.2350 ahead of the session low of 1.2323, where the daily cloud base will lend support. Below there could reverse towards 1.2300/05 and then at 1.2260/50, where the rising trend support should remain strong support. Having tried and failed to break below this trend support trend support last week in trading down to 1.2215, this area will also remain strong support. This looks likely to hold for a while although a break could then head towards Fibo/100 DMA support at 1.2170/75. Below there would target 1.2085 and possibly 1.2025 although this remains over the horizon for now.
As before, I remain fairly neutral while this choppy trade persists, but given the speculative long Euro positioning, I still mildly prefer the downside in the medium term and would look to sell rallies towards the top end of the current range. Right now it seems that we are likely to just chop around within the existing range- Something like 1.21/1.25 – but going nowhere fast. US Retail Sales in focus today.
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.2475 | 27 Mar high | 1.2350 | 100 HMA |
| 1.2450 | Minor | 1.2323 | Session low /Daily cloud base |
| 1.2421 | 28 Mar high | 1.2299/1.2306 | 12 Apr low/13 Apr low (Daily Tenkan) |
| 1.2415 | (76.4% of 1.2475/1.2215) | 1.2250 | 9 Apr low/Rising trend support |
| 1.2395/94 | 10 Apr high/Session high | 1.2215 | 6 Apr low |
Economic data highlights will include:
German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production, API weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
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