Mario Blascak, PhD
Independent Analyst
- The EUR/USD is trading little changed at around mid 1.1400s as the risk off sentiment prevails.
- The EUR/USD is in the consolidation phase after the US Federal Reserve officials opted for the p[atient outlook for rates.
- China’s sharp deterioration in exports and imports spurs the risk-off mood as the trade wars start to bite.
The EUR/USD is trading little changed at around mid 1.1400s on Monday after China’s trade data showed a sharp deceleration in growth rates spurring risk-off market sentiment.
The EUR/USD 1.1470 consolidation phase after flash move below 1.1500 last Friday. The release of China’s trade balance for December saw exports down -4.4% over the year and imports down -7.6%. Despite gloomy December data, the overall 2018 China’s total global exports rose 9.9%, its strongest performance in seven years, while imports increased 15.8%.
The Eurozone industrial production slumped 1.7% over the month in November while falling -3.5% over the year indicating that the trade wars and cooling demand were hitting the global economy including China and the Eurozone.
Technically the EUR/USD is in consolidation phase moving within a sideways trend after the currency pair rose as high as 1.1572 last week. The slide lower in the EUR/USD is a result of swinging risk-on and risk-off sentiment stemming from the ongoing trade discussions underscored by a deteriorating outlook for the global growth that sees safe havens including US Dollar benefitting. The sideways trend is set to prevail in lack of fundamental data with technical oscillators including the Relative Strength Index and Slow Stochastics in the neutral territory.
EUR/USD 30-minutes chart
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