Euro touches lowest in more than a year as Turkey effect continues

Andrew Robinson MarketPulse

Turkey says it has an action plan

The EUR touched a 13-month low versus the US dollar as trading got underway this week, with markets preparing for more turmoil involving the Turkish lira. The seemingly unstoppable downward spiral in Turkey’s currency and economy is raising concerns about European banks’ exposures to the country helped spark contagion fears while safe haven flows saw German 10-year bond yields edge lower.

The EUR touched 1.1366, the lowest since July last year though has since rebounded as traders focused on comments from Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak who said the country had drafted an action plan to ease investor concerns. He added that the banking watchdog had also limited swap transactions in the currency. There were no details on the so-called plan, so the bounce so far has been muted. The lira extended its weakening bias, hitting a new record low of 7.0081 versus the US dollar. EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1381.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Source: Oanda fxTrade

Oil attempts to keep its firmer bias

Tight supply conditions pushed oil prices higher as trading got under way though concerns about a possible near-term drop in demand capped gains. In the longer run, oil demand is seen rising to 1.5 million barrels per day in 2019, up from 1.4 million barrels per day this year, according to the monthly IEA market report released Friday. WTI is currently trading at 67.91 after touching 68.17 earlier. Near-term, WTI appears capped by the 100-hour moving average which currently sits at 68.27.

WTI Hourly Chart

Source: Oanda fxTrade

China data scheduled

We are awaiting some second-tier loans data from China this morning. Growth in new loans is expected to slow to 1.21 billion yuan in July while the M2 money supply is expected to advance 8.2% y/y that month. Foreign direct investment could also be released today.

Sentiment readings for Australia’s business conditions and business confidence are also due sometime this morning. The last readings were 15 and 6 respectively.

Author

Andrew Robinson

MarketPulse

A seasoned professional with more than 30 years’ experience in foreign exchange, interest rates and commodities, Andrew Robinson is a senior market analyst with OANDA, responsible for providing timely and relevant market commentar

EUR/USD tests nine-day EMA support near 1.1850

EUR/USD inches lower during the Asian hours on Monday, trading around 1.1870 at the time of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index momentum indicator at 56 stays above the midline, confirming improving momentum. RSI has cooled from prior overbought readings but stabilizes above 50, suggesting dips could stay limited before buyers reassert control.

GBP/USD flat lines as traders await key UK macro data and FOMC minutes

The GBP/USD pair kicks off a new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow range, just below mid-1.3600s, during the Asian session. Moreover, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive traders as the market focus now shifts to this week's important releases from the UK and the US.

Gold buyers hesitate amid holiday-thinned trading

Gold trades volatile, but within range, as US, China holidays-led thin trading exaggerates moves. The US Dollar extends range play into the US GDP week, with markets pricing at least two Fed rate cuts this year. Technically, Gold tests key support at $5,000; daily RSI still remains bullish.

Top Crypto Losers: Dogecoin, Zcash, Bonk – Meme and Privacy coins under pressure

Meme coins such as Dogecoin and Bonk, alongside the privacy coin Zcash (ZEC), are leading the broader market losses over the last 24 hours. DOGE, ZEC, and BONK ended their three consecutive days of recovery with a sudden decline on Sunday, as crucial resistance levels capped the gains. Technically, the altcoins show downside risk, starting the week under pressure.

Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation

Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.