Euro lags ahead of ECB meeting

The collapse of the French government was largely priced in by markets, and the common currency actually ended the week posting a modest rebound against the dollar.

Difficulties lie ahead, however, as the government has shown a complete inability to pass a budget for 2025, meaning that the onus on providing stimulus to the economy will lie squarely on the doorstep of the European Central Bank.

This week's ECB meeting is key, of course, though institutional pushback against a 50 bp cut has led markets to almost rule out that outcome.

Staff forecasts for growth and inflation will be key, in our view. Current levels of the euro are very low, and we would need to see some meaningful downward revision of those forecasts, particularly inflation, to justify any further downside from here.