The collapse of the French government was largely priced in by markets, and the common currency actually ended the week posting a modest rebound against the dollar.
Difficulties lie ahead, however, as the government has shown a complete inability to pass a budget for 2025, meaning that the onus on providing stimulus to the economy will lie squarely on the doorstep of the European Central Bank.
This week's ECB meeting is key, of course, though institutional pushback against a 50 bp cut has led markets to almost rule out that outcome.
Staff forecasts for growth and inflation will be key, in our view. Current levels of the euro are very low, and we would need to see some meaningful downward revision of those forecasts, particularly inflation, to justify any further downside from here.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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EUR/USD: Pressuring recent highs after soft US PPI figures
EUR/USD extends gains towards the 1.0300 region in the American session, helped by a better market mood. The United States Producer Price Index rose by less than anticipated in December, supporting the case of an on-hold Federal Reserve throughout the first half of the year.
GBP/USD weak below 1.2200 amid UK bond market concerns
GBP/USD retains its weak tone, trading sub-1.2200. The Pound Sterling lost ground amid another run in UK Gilt yields, reflecting the bond market instability. The US Dollar remains unattractive after December PPI figures.
Gold pressures intraday highs as mood sours
XAU/USD is finding a floor for now to bounce off after its sluggish Monday performance when Federal Reserve (Fed) policy rate concerns took over sentiment, recovering slightly and trading near $2,670 on Tuesday.
Bitcoin recovers after retesting $90K support
Bitcoin’s price recovers and trades at around $95,500 on Tuesday after dipping below $90,000 the previous day. The recent downturn at the start of the week has liquidated over $734 million in total liquidations, more than $152 million specifically in BTC.
Small business optimism shoots up in December
Small business sentiment continued to improve in December alongside greater economic and public policy certainty. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 3.4 points to 105.1, reaching its highest level since October 2018.
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