The collapse of the French government was largely priced in by markets, and the common currency actually ended the week posting a modest rebound against the dollar.
Difficulties lie ahead, however, as the government has shown a complete inability to pass a budget for 2025, meaning that the onus on providing stimulus to the economy will lie squarely on the doorstep of the European Central Bank.
This week's ECB meeting is key, of course, though institutional pushback against a 50 bp cut has led markets to almost rule out that outcome.
Staff forecasts for growth and inflation will be key, in our view. Current levels of the euro are very low, and we would need to see some meaningful downward revision of those forecasts, particularly inflation, to justify any further downside from here.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains offered below 1.1300
EUR/USD remains under pressure on Thursday, maintaining its trade below the key 1.1300 support. The pair's pullback coincides with a rebound in the US Dollar, buoyed by stronger-than-expected businnes activity gauges in the US.
GBP/USD keeps its bullish stance above 1.3400
Encouraging prints from flash UK PMIs seem to be lending a hand to the British Pound on Thursday, motivating GBP/USD to stick to daily gains and extend its advance for yet another day beyond 1.3400 the figure.
Gold battles to retain the $3,300 mark
Gold now seems to have embarked on a daly consolidative phase around the $3,300 mark per troy ounce amid the firm performance of the Greenback. However, a cautious market mood is helping to limit the downside for the precious metal.
Bitcoin celebrates annual Pizza Day with a new all-time high
Bitcoin (BTC) enthusiasts are celebrating Bitcoin Pizza Day with a banger. BTC made a new all-time high on Wednesday and has entered price discovery mode. The OG cryptocurrency is trading above $110,000 for the first time ever.
FOMO vs fundamentals: Retail buys the dip, institutional investors stay cautious
Retail optimism is rising, but institutions are still treading carefully amid lingering macro and earnings risks. Policy and fiscal uncertainty remain elevated, with trade tensions, U.S. debt concerns, and a cautious Fed dominating the backdrop.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.