Euro falls to four-week low, politicians to blame

EUR/USD plummeted below 1.0800 and is currently hovering around 1.0796 on Monday morning. This development came amid heightened political tensions in France. President Emmanuel Macron called for early elections on Sunday in the wake of his party's crushing defeat and Marine Le Pen's party's resounding victory in the European Parliament elections. The far-right, which secured twice as many votes as its closest competitors, has won and now has significant influence in France. The defeat of the country's pro-presidential forces has profoundly impacted the euro's position.

Furthermore, the euro was also under pressure from the US dollar ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting. Robust employment statistics in the US for May had already led the market to lower its expectations of a Fed interest rate cut.

Last week, the European Central Bank lowered its interest rate for the first time in five years. However, it is adopting an overly cautious stance on further rate cuts. In its comments, the ECB acknowledged the continued price pressures and projected that inflation will exceed targets this year and next. The regulator is refraining from making any specific commitments on a clear rate trajectory, indicating that all future ECB actions will have to be based on incoming statistics one way or another.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market completed the correction at 1.0901 and started the development of a new wave of decline. The downward impulse to the level of 1.0835 is fulfilled at the moment. A consolidation range around this level was formed, and the structure of the wave to 1.0747 was worked out with a downward exit. Today, we will consider the probability of a decline to 1.0735. After working off this level, the growth link to 1.0785 (test from below) is possible, with a further decline to 1.0672, representing the local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and is directed strictly downwards.

On the H1 EUR/USD chart, the market continues to develop a structure of decline to 1.0734. After working off this level, a correction to 1.0785 is possible. Further, we will consider the probability of a decline to 1.0672, the first target of the downward trend. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is under the level of 20. We expect the beginning of growth to the level of 50.