EUR/USD wavers after NFP bounce

EUR/USD stalls NFP rally near 1.1600.
Technical signals are mixed.
Break above 1.1760 could revive bullish appetite.

Christina Parthenidou XM

EUR/USD failed to attract sufficient buying interest to extend Friday’s post-NFP rally above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the psychological 1.1600 level on Monday.

Price momentum remains weak for a second consecutive day, raising concerns that the recent rebound from the eight-week low of 1.1390 may be just a temporary correction within the developing downtrend that began in July.

However, technical signals are currently mixed. A bullish hammer candlestick pattern formed last week, and an upward-sloping stochastic oscillator are counterbalancing the bearish signals from the falling RSI and MACD.

The 50-day SMA, currently at 1.1554, is now in focus. A move below this level could undermine bullish hopes and push the price back toward the 1.1400 support zone. A deeper decline could lead the bears into the 1.1200–1.1270 region – a key area that includes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 uptrend – and possibly bring the 200-day SMA near 1.1150 into play.

On the upside, if the pair manages to climb above its 20-day SMA, immediate resistance could be found between 1.1690 and 1.1760. A decisive close above this area could revive bullish sentiment, potentially opening the door for a new higher high around the 1.1900–1.1980 trendline zone.

Summing up, EUR/USD is currently in a neutral phase. Despite Friday’s sharp rebound, the bulls will need to reclaim the 20-day SMA at 1.1600 to regain control. Failure to do so, especially a drop below 1.1550, could invite renewed selling pressure.

Author

Christina Parthenidou

Christina joined the XM investment research department in May 2017. She holds a master degree in Economics and Business from the Erasmus University Rotterdam with a specialization in International economics.

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