EUR/USD: the prospect of a recovery is still looking like a struggle [Video]

Richard Perry Independent Analyst

EUR/USD

Whilst the euro bulls managed to stem the flow of selling on EUR/USD for a bit yesterday, the prospect of a recovery is still looking like a struggle. Yesterday’s marginal positive candle/session seem to be a pause for breath rather than the potential for recovery. A renewed tick lower this morning seems to be re-instating the sellers. Momentum indicators are still on the swing lower and are close to being decisively correctively configured. The key is likely to still be the support of the old pivot at $1.0990. If the RSI starts to slip into the 30s, along with the deterioration in MACD and Stochastics, it is difficult to see $1.0990 holding. For now though, the support is intact and with Thanksgiving looming tomorrow, there may be a lack of conviction to push a break ahead of the public holiday. For now though we continue to see intraday strength as fading. It was interesting to see yesterday’s high failing just under the initial resistance at $1.1030, with $1.1050 subsequently overhead. Below $1.0990 opens $1.0875/$1.0925.

Author

Richard Perry

Independent Analyst

Richard Perry, Independent Market Analyst, has over 20 years of experience working in financial markets in London.

AUD/USD sits near a one-month top, above 0.7000 amid fresh USD selling

AUD/USD holds above 0.7000 through the Asian session, trading near a one-month high touched earlier this Monday amid renewed US Dollar selling. US bond yields decline further amid a modest pullback in crude oil prices, capping the USD recovery from a three-week low. Moreover, bets for a November RBA rate hike support the Aussie, though upside seems capped ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting, starting Tuesday.

USD/JPY struggles below 157.00 on weak USD; holds above one-month low ahead of Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Monday, stalling its recovery from the lowest level since September 18, touched Friday as a further decline in US bond yields weighs on the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen benefits from a more hawkish BoJ, further weighing on the currency pair. The downside, however, seems limited as traders keenly await Fed and BoJ policy meetings later this week.

Gold rebounds from three-month low and retakes $4,000 on weak USD; focus remains on FOMC

Gold attracts some buyers, moving back above the $4,000 psychological mark during the Asian session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar. US President Donald Trump has ruled out immediate military action against Iran, triggering a modest pullback in crude oil prices. Furthermore, Federal Reserve officials have signaled no urgency to raise interest rates immediately.

Cardano's derivatives and on-chain data confirm bears in control

Cardano extends losses, trading below $0.202 after three consecutive weeks of more than 20% declines since early October. Selling pressure continues to build as weakening derivatives metrics, bearish on-chain signals and a deteriorating technical outlook point to further downside risks. Derivatives data shows a bearish bias for Cardano.

CFTC Report: WTI rally runs ahead of positioning

The week in one sentence: WTI prices surged while speculative longs were cut in the week to October 20, creating the clearest price/positioning divergence. Sterling and the Canadian Dollar led the constructive currency shift, while Yen longs also rebuilt. Speculators turned less constructive on the WTI, reducing their net exposure to around 89.3K contracts.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.