EUR/USD soars to 1.1700 as Strait of Hormuz is set to open

EUR/USD rockets to a five-week high on a US-Iran temporary ceasefire.
Bulls surge beyond long-term SMAs but must hold above 1.1670 to retain momentum.

Christina Parthenidou XM

EUR/USD surged to a five-week high of 1.1700 early Wednesday, buoyed by news that the US and Iran have agreed on a two-week ceasefire that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz after President Trump threatened to kill a "whole civilization." The bullish push came as expectations of aggressive rate hikes eased - though they haven’t disappeared - causing European bond yields to drift lower.

While permanent peace remains uncertain, the temporary de-escalation has given the euro a chance to recover. The pair bounced back above its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) near 1.1670, signaling renewed bullish energy. Now, the challenge for the bulls is to maintain their footing above this level. A move past 1.1750, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downleg, could open the door to test the 1.1830 zone. Beyond that, resistance may appear around 1.1925.

The technical indicators support the optimistic view. The RSI is rising above its neutral 50 mark for the first time in two months, and the MACD is showing signs of improvement above its red signal line, hinting that upside momentum could persist.

Yet, the encouraging picture is not entirely secure. A failure to hold above 1.1670 could activate some selling, with support likely emerging around the broken resistance trendline at 1.1570 and the 20-day SMA at 1.1545. If pressure mounts further, the 1.1400–1.1465 zone could become a critical battleground. A breach there could accelerate losses toward 1.1280.

In short, EUR/USD’s rebound above 1.1600 has strengthened short-term technical conditions, but the bulls must now defend 1.1670 to preserve the momentum needed for further gains.

Author

Christina Parthenidou

Christina joined Trading Point in May 2017. She holds a master degree in Economics and Business from the Erasmus University Rotterdam with a specialization in International economics.

USD/JPY eyes August swing low, near 155.20 ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY retests the August monthly swing low during the Asian session on Friday as a more hawkish repricing of BoJ rate-hike bets and a suspected intervention continue to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses amid soft US bond yields, further weighing on the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200; US NFP awaited

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7200, near its highest level since mid-May, as bulls await the US NFP report for more cues on the Fed's policy path before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level in over a week and acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the RBA's hawkish tilt.

Gold bulls seem hesitant below $4,500 amid modest USD bounce ahead of US NFP

Gold remains on the defensive below the $4,500 mark through the Asian session, snapping a two-day winning streak amid a modest US Dollar uptick. The commodity, however, remains close to the weekly high, which it touched the previous day, as traders keenly await the release of the closely watched US monthly employment details. The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will provide more cues about the Fed's policy path amid receding bets of a September rate hike.

Bitcoin clears $80,000 on reduced rate hike odds – Zcash, Ethena rise

Bitcoin is trading above $80,000 on Friday, sustaining the broader cryptocurrency market's risk-on sentiment. Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller signaled support for a potential pause in interest rates on Thursday, lowering the odds of a September rate hike to 50%. Zcash (ZEC) and Ethena (ENA) emerge as top performers over the last 24 hours.

NFP preview: Can jobs data ease rate hike fears?

As we move to the end of the week, the focus shifts to the macro data, and to the strength of the labour market in the US. August payrolls are released on Friday at 1330 BST, and the market is expecting a reading of 58k. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1% and wage growth is expected to moderate slightly to 3% last month, down from 3.2%.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.