Economics week ahead

U.S. Week ahead

New Home sales • Friday

We anticipate that new home sales rose 2.9% in June. Transactions appear poised for an improvement following back-to-back slips in April and May. That said, our expectation for a 597K annual pace of sales is still quite sluggish.

Inflation stemming from the U.S.-Iran war lifted the 30-year mortgage rate to 6.5% on average in June. Mortgage applications for purchase ticked up slightly over the month, but remained much lower than the trend at the close of 2025. Builders also continued to report poor sales conditions and weak buyer traffic, according to the NAHB. We see scope for new home sales to modestly strengthen this year as global price shocks fade and longer-term interest rates come down somewhat, especially as builders continue to utilize price cuts and other sales incentives. However, a meaningful acceleration in activity is unlikely.

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