EUR/USD Price Forecast: US Dollar strength persists despite political noise

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1491

• United States to release private sector employment and growth data.
• The Hamburg Commercial Bank upwardly revised European October PMIs.
• EUR/USD poised to extend its sump, relevant support at 1.1470.

The EUR/USD pair trades near a fresh multi-week low of 1.1473, confined to a tight intraday range. Market players await United States (US) data for direction, as the country will see the release of two private-sector reports: the ADP survey on Employment Change, and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

The private sector is expected to have added 25,000 new positions in October, following a loss of 32,000 in September. As for the ISM Services PMI, analysts anticipate a 50.8 print vs the previous 50. The expected positive news may help the US Dollar (USD) retain its positive bias, as those would hardly affect the current Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy stance. The Fed has hinted at a wait-and-see stance amid the uncertainty related to the lack of data and weakness in the labor market.

Earlier in the day, the Eurozone released the September Producer Price Index (PPI), which contracted by 0.1% in the month, after falling 0.4% in August. The annual PPI fell by 0.2% as expected, and improved from the previous -0.6%. Additionally, the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HBOC) published the final estimates of the European Services and Composite PMIs, upwardly revising most figures. German services output was confirmed at 54.6, while the Composite PMI was reported at 53.9. The final EU Services PMI printed at 53, up from the previous estimate of 52.6, while the Composite PMI was reported at 52.5.

Other than that, political headlines keep speculative interest in cautious mode. In the US, Democrats had victories throughout different states in races for mayors and governors. US President Donald Trump blamed the losses on the government shutdown, now officially the longest in the country’s history.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is currently trading at around 1.1492, little changed on a daily basis. A bearish 20 SMA slides below the longer ones, and currently provides resistance at around 1.1511, suggesting sellers retain the upper hand. Meanwhile, the 100 SMA is also bearish, falling above the shorter one at 1.1606, while the 200 SMA grinds lower at 1.1649. The Momentum indicator remains in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has recovered to 35 but remains below its midline, indicating that bearish pressure is easing rather than reversing.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD is at risk of falling further. A bearish 20 SMA slides lower and has crossed beneath the 100 SMA, signaling sellers’ dominance in the near term. The 20 SMA stands at 1.1597, and the 100 SMA at 1.1665, forming a resistance band between these two values. At the same time, the Momentum indicator heads firmly south within negative territory, reinforcing bearish traction. Finally, the RSI has nudged up to 34.3 from 32.5, still comfortably below the 50 midline, hinting at scope for intermittent stabilization rather than trend reversal. The pair’s bias stays south with a steeper decline on the table once below 1.1470 a long-term static support level.

(This content was partially created with the help of an AI tool)