EUR/USD Price Forecast: Higher high still on the table

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1369

Easing tariff-related concerns underpin the mood, but the USD is still in trouble.
Federal Reserve officials will flood the news wires in the American session.
EUR/USD corrects near-term extreme overbought conditions, yet downside limited.

The EUR/USD pair rallied beyond the 1.1400 mark at the beginning of a new week, as the US Dollar (USD) remains on the back foot, despite tariffs-related relief. Trade war tensions remain, albeit the White House announced over the weekend that some technology imports from China will be exempted from the reciprocal tariffs, yet are still subject to the initial 20% levy.

On a negative note, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in an ABC News interview on Sunday that these products, alongside semiconductors, will face separate new levies within the next two months. Nevertheless, stock markets trade with optimism, with Asian and European indexes firmly up and pushing Wall Street’s futures higher.

Data-wise, the macroeconomic calendar highlights today several Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers. Other than that, the focus will remain on tariff-related headlines coming from Washington.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair retreated from its intraday peak of 1.1424 and trades in the 1.1360, holding on to gains yet within Friday’s range. From a technical point of view, the daily chart shows the upward momentum eased, with technical indicators lacking directional strength, yet holding at extreme overbought readings. At the same time, the pair develops above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around 1.0930. Overall, the risk remains skewed to the upside, with some consolidation expected before another leg north.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the corrective slide is underway, yet readings hint at a limited slide. Technical indicators eased from their recent peaks and aim lower, still near overbought readings. At the same time, the pair develops above all its moving averages, which head higher with uneven strength, still supporting the bullish case.

Support levels: 1.1320 1.1285 1.1240

Resistance levels: 1.1425 1.1470 1.1515

Premium

You have reached your limit of 3 free articles for this month.

Start your subscription and get access to all our original articles.

Subscribe to Premium Sign In

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

EUR/USD flat lines below 1.1900; divergent Fed-ECB expectations offer support

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.1835-1.1830 region and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1875 area, remaining nearly unchanged for the day and staying within striking distance of an over one-week high, reached on Tuesday, amid mixed cues.

GBP/USD slips heading into the Thursday trading window

The Pound Sterling pulled back from four-year highs on Wednesday, weighed down by a combination of Bank of England dovishness and UK political uncertainty, even as the US Dollar weakened on soft labor market revisions.

Gold posts modest gains above $5,050 as US-Iran tensions persist despite strong labor data

Gold price trades in positive territory near $5,060 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal edges higher despite stronger-than-expected US employment data. The release of the US Consumer Price Index inflation report will take center stage later on Friday.

Bitcoin holds steady despite strong US labour market

Bitcoin briefly bounced from $66,000 to above $68,000 but slightly reversed those gains following Wednesday's US January jobs report. The top crypto is hovering around $67,000, down 2% over the past 24 hours as of writing on Wednesday.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

XRP sell-off deepens amid weak retail interest, risk-off sentiment

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower around $1.36 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by low retail interest and macroeconomic uncertainty, which is accelerating risk-off sentiment.