EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gearing up for US data and Powell

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1796

The September EU Hamburg Commercial Bank PMIs came in mixed.
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak about the economic outlook.
EUR/USD losses upward momentum ahead of 1.1800, downside still limited.

The EUR/USD pair trades just shy of the 1.1800 mark, still confined to familiar levels as market participants await fresh clues on United States (US) economic progress and the words from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.

Financial markets keep revolving around the latest Fed’s decision to trim interest rates and reconcile with additional cuts in the foreseeable future. The US Dollar (USD) remains pressured, although the dominant bearish trend has begun fading now that there’s more clarity on what’s next in the monetary front.

As the day unfolds, market players price in mixed European data, as the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HBOC) published the preliminary estimates of the September Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs). EU data came in mixed, with a downtick in manufacturing output balanced with a better-than-anticipated services index. As a result, the Composite PMI resulted at 51.2, slightly better than the 51.1 anticipated and the previous 51.

Coming up next are the US S&P Global PMIs, with manufacturing and services output expected to remain steady at expansionary levels. The Composite PMI is expected to print at 54.6, matching the August reading. Additionally, Fed Chair Powell is due to speak about the economic outlook at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon in Rhode Island. Speculative interest will be looking at data and Powell for clues that confirm the ongoing optimism about the US economic progress.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows it is confined to a tight intraday range, hovering around its opening. The risk remains skewed to the upside, albeit the momentum is lost. Technical indicators turned marginally lower, but remain within positive levels, limiting the odds for a relevant slide. At the same time, EUR/USD keeps holding above a mildly bullish Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing dynamic support at around 1.1730. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs grind north far below the shorter one, in line with limited USD demand.

The near-term picture is pretty much neutral. The 4-hour chart shows that the Momentum indicator stands directionless just above its 100 line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned marginally lower and stands at around 53. Finally, the EUR/USD pair develops above all its moving averages, with a flat 20 SMA providing intraday support at around 1.1770.

Support levels: 1.1770 1.1730 1.1690

Resistance levels: 1.1820 1.1855 1.1890

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD hovers around 0.7000, over one-week low ahead of RBA decision

AUD/USD consolidates the previous day's losses to an over one-week low, holding steady around 0.7000 during the Asian session on Tuesday ahead of the RBA rate decision. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end the US-Iran war counter Fed hike bets amid market anxiety ahead of the US midterm elections, further supporting the currency pair.

USD/JPY fails near 159.00 amid weak USD, intervention risks

USD/JPY edges lower during Tuesday’s Asian session, reversing part of the previous day's gains to 158.00 as the US Dollar remains depressed amid hopes for Iran diplomacy and ahead of US midterm elections. Meanwhile, intervention risks support the Japanese Yen, though the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike caps gains. This keeps the pair confined within a familiar range and warrants caution before placing directional bets.

Gold consolidates near $3,950 as Fed hike bets counter weak USD ahead of US elections

Gold holds steady around $3,950 through Tuesday’s Asian session, consolidating the previous day's recovery gains from the lowest level since October 2025, touched last week. Hopes for Iran optimism keep the safe-haven US Dollar depressed, which, along with anxiety ahead of US midterm elections, supports the bullion. However, Fed rate-hike bets and a modest bounce in US bond yields cap gains for the non-yielding yellow metal.

RBA expected to raise interest rate to 4.85%

The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday and is widely anticipated to raise the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% from 4.6%. If the RBA delivers as expected, it will be the fifth interest rate hike of 2026, and the OCR will hit an 18-year high.

Strong iPhone sales fortify Apple's Q4 result

A robust fourth-quarter for Apple's iPhone sales helped the tech titan beat Wall Street's consensus on Monday. Apple reported $57.58 billion in iPhone sales in Q4, beating the average analyst estimate by more than a billion. However, AAPL stock shed close to 4% afterhours despite the top and bottom line beat.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.