EUR/USD Price Forecast: Caution ahead of critical US employment data
EUR/USD Current price: 1.1737
- US Nonfarm Payroll revisions could shake the US Dollar ahead of the Fed’s decision.
- The European Central Bank will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday.
- EUR/USD eases from its recent highs, slide seems corrective so far.
The EUR/USD pair peaked at 1.1780 on Tuesday, retreating from the level during European trading hours and currently trading at around 1.1730. The US Dollar (USD) pared its early slide ahead of data releases, with the immediate focus on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) revisions.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the 2025 preliminary revision to employment data for the twelve months through March 2025, with the final version set to be out in February 2026. The 2024 preliminary report showed that the US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024. As a result, the Federal Reserve (Fed) trimmed interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in the immediate subsequent meeting.
With the September Fed meeting around the corner, market participants have fully priced in an upcoming rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds for a 25 bps cut stand at 88.2%, while the remaining 11.8% is betting on a 50 bps cut. If something, the NFP revisions could boost the odds for the larger option.
Other than that, the macroeconomic calendar has little to offer today, but different speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) officials. The ECB will have a monetary policy meeting this week, which means officials will not discuss monetary policy.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows it keeps posting higher highs and higher lows on a daily basis, but the ongoing retracement limits the bullish potential. Technical indicators remain within positive levels but turned south, indicating easing buying interest. At the same time, the pair develops above all its moving averages, which continue to lose directional strength. A flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently hovers in the 1.1670 region, while a directionless 100 SMA stands at 1.1530.
The 4-hour chart offers a similar picture. The EUR/USD pair trades above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 SMA maintaining its upward slope above the longer ones and providing dynamic support at around 1.1710. Technical indicators, in the meantime, retreated from overbought readings, heading firmly south yet still above their midlines.
Support levels: 1.1710 1.1660 1.1630
Resistance levels: 1.1780 1.1825 1.1850
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Author
Valeria Bednarik
FXStreet
Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.
