EUR/USD Price Forecast: Buying interest fades, sellers side-lined

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0490

• Financial markets eyeing US fiscal and political headlines for direction.
• United States President Donald Trump will hit the wires after Wall Street’s opening.
• EUR/USD holding ground, risk skews to the downside in the near term.

The EUR/USD pair kept trading within familiar levels on Wednesday, finding near-term demand during Asian trading hours and hitting 1.0525 early in the Asian session, but quickly easing below the 1.0500 mark.

A cautious mood is helping the US Dollar (USD) in the near term, following headlines coming from the White House. The United States (US) government revived concerns by announcing that tariffs on Mexico and Canada would go forward after a one-month delay. Additionally, Consumer Confidence plummeted in the US amid concerns about the economic outlook.

The focus is also on ongoing negotiations. On the one hand, US authorities are talking separately with Russia and Ukraine about potential mineral deals, granting US access to rare minerals. On the other hand, President Adviser Peter Navarro is dealing with Canada and Mexico, noting that upcoming levies will depend on how negotiations move forward.

Meanwhile, a scarce macroeconomic calendar exacerbates range trading. So far, Germany released the GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, which fell to -24.7 in March after posting -22.4 in February. The US session will feature a speech by US President Donald Trump and January New Home Sales. Later in the session, a couple of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will hit the wires.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows it is trading in the red, having met sellers near a bearish 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the third consecutive day. The 100 SMA currently stands at around 1.0535. Meanwhile, a flat 20 SMA provides dynamic support at around 1.4020. Finally, technical indicators remain within positive levels yet lack directional strength.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair is pressuring a directionless 20 SMA, while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain modest upward slopes below the shorter one. The Momentum indicator aims south below its 100 line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator also aims lower,  yet around 53. The risk skews to the downside, although there are no signs of anticipating a steeper decline.

Support levels: 1.0475 1.0420 1.0385

Resistance levels: 1.0535 1.0560 1.0600