EUR/USD Price Forecast: Buyers gain confidence amid hopes of a US federal reopening

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1570

• Investors’ confidence in the EU fell further in November, according to Sentix.
• The US Senate reached an agreement on a temporary funding bill, spurring optimism.
• EUR/USD holds onto modest gains, lacks clear directional momentum.

The EUR/USD pair trades at around 1.1570, maintaining modest intraday gains early in the American session. The US Dollar (USD) kicked off the week gaping higher, with EUR/USD bottoming at 1.1541, but changed course amid a better market mood.

Investors became optimistic over the weekend, as headlines suggested the United States (US) government shutdown may soon come to an end. A group of Democratic senators negotiated a deal, and the chamber voted 60-40 on a temporary funding bill. Such a bill still needs to pass the House of Representatives and later be sent to President Donald Trump for signature, but the news was enough to put financial markets in risk-on mode.

Data-wise, the EU published the Sentix Investor Confidence index, which deteriorated in November to -74 from the -5.4 posted in the previous month. The American session will feature speeches by some Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, although the focus will be on shutdown-related news.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is trading with a positive tone but lacks directional strength. The pair is currently trading at around 1.1570, and the 4-hour chart shows that the 20 SMA advances at 1.1538, lending near-term support. Meanwhile, the falling 100 SMA at 1.1585 and the descending 200 SMA at 1.1626 cap the upside. At the same time, the Momentum indicator remains positive but has cooled in recent prints, signaling waning buying speed, whereas the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator ticks higher at around 60, endorsing a mild bullish bias as long as price holds above the rising 20 SMA.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD appears to have limited upward scope, with the bearish 20 SMA sliding south and now positioned below the 100 SMA, creating resistance at 1.1593 and 1.1666, respectively. The longer-term tone is steadier, as the 200 SMA continues to advance at 1.1348, offering a dynamic floor beneath the spot. Finally, the Momentum indicator remains in negative territory but is gaining upward traction, while the RSI advances at around 50, not enough to confirm another leg north, yet skewing the risk to the upside.

(This content was partially created with the help of an AI tool)