EUR/USD Price Forecast: Buyers aiming for fresh 2025 highs

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1806

• Unimpressive European data was not enough to halt the pair’s advance.
• United States Retail Sales surged in August by 0.6%, beating expectations.
• EUR/USD maintains its positive bias and aims to challenge the 2025 high at 1.1830.

The EUR/USD pair extended its advance beyond the 1.1800 level on Tuesday, and trades not far below the 2025 high of 1.1830 posted on July 1. The US Dollar (USD) remained under selling pressure ahead of the critical US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

European data was unimpressive, as the Eurozone Industrial Production posted a modest 0.3% on a monthly basis in July, missing expectations of a 0.4% uptick, although the annual reading was up 1.8%, better than the 1.7% anticipated. Meanwhile, Germany released the ZEW Survey on Economic Sentiment, which improved in September to 37.3 from the previous 34.7. Economic Sentiment in the EU was also upbeat, hitting 26.1 from the previous 25.1. Still, the German assessment of the current situation fell to -76.4, worsening from the -68.6 posted in August.

The pair held above the 1.1800 mark ahead of the release of United States (US) Retail Sales, temporarily piercing the level with upbeat figures. Retail Sales were up 0.6% in August, beating the 0.2% anticipated by market players. Additionally, Import Prices rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in the same month, while Export Prices also gained 0.3%.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair battles to retain the 1.1800 mark early in the American session, with the daily chart showing that it retains its bullish bias. Technical indicators aim north within positive levels, in line with persistent buying interest, while hovering around one-month tops. At the same time, the pair is comfortable above all its moving averages, although the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains directionless at around 1.1690, reflecting the absence of a clear trend definition.

In the near term, EUR/USD is bullish, despite being overbought. The Momentum indicator in the 4-hour chart maintains its upward slope well above its 100 line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims firmly north at around 72, without hinting at buying exhaustion. At the same time, the 20 SMA accelerated higher and currently stands around 1.1740, reflecting buyers’ dominance.

Support levels: 1.1785 1.1740 1.1700

Resistance levels: 1.1830 1.1880 1.1910