EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls maintain the pressure ahead of critical US employment data

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1181

German inflation eased further in September, according to preliminary estimates.
The United States will publish the September Nonfarm Payrolls report.
EUR/USD retreats once again from around 1.1200, but bears have nothing to do.

The EUR/USD pair hit 1.1208 during European hours on Monday amid persistent US Dollar’s weakness. Financial markets are optimistic following news from China last week, as the Asian giant announced measures to boost the economy, combining monetary and fiscal support. Furthermore, central banks’ monetary loosening and hopes interest rates will keep declining underpinned the mood.

The macroeconomic calendar will be quite busy this week, with a focus on European inflation and United States (US) employment. So far, Germany released the preliminary estimate of the September Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which rose by 1.8% in the previous twelve months, easing from the 2% posted in the previous month. On a monthly basis, the HICP declined by 0.1%.

The American session will include a speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. Data-wise, the US will release the September Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for the same month.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair eased from the aforementioned high ahead of the US opening but holds on to intraday gains. In the daily chart, the risk skews to the upside. The pair is developing above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) aiming north at around 1.1110, providing dynamic support. The 100 SMA, in the meantime, extends its advance above a flat 200 SMA, both far below the shorter one. Technical indicators, in the meantime, maintain their upward slopes within positive levels, in line with another leg north, should the pair finally clear the 1.1200 resistance area.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD offers a neutral-to-bullish stance. Technical indicators stand directionless, albeit well above their midlines and without signs of upward exhaustion. At the same time, the pair develops above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA flat at around 1.1160. The longer moving averages, in the meantime, maintain their upward slopes below the shorter one, limiting the odds of a steeper decline.

Support levels: 1.1160 1.1110 1.1075

Resistance levels: 1.1200 1.1250 1.1290

(This story was corrected on September 30 at 13:25 GMT to say in the headline "US employment data" instead of "US inflation data" as previously stated)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

GBP/USD hits multi-week tops around 1.3560

GBP/USD gathers fresh steam and advances to new three-month peaks near the 1.3560 zone on Friday. Cable’s sharp move higher comes after three daily drops in a row and follows the increasing selling pressure hurting the Greenback.

EUR/USD pops to fresh two-month highs, targets 1.1600

EUR/USD advances markedly, revisiting the upper 1.1500s for the first time since mid-June. The pair’s sharp uptick comes on the back of a strong retracement in the US Dollar amid BoJ intervention chatter and despite steady uncertainty in the Middle East.

Gold picks up pace, approaches $4,400

Gold rebounds toward the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday, reversing the previous day’s pullback. The precious metal’s recovery comes as fresh and intense weakness keep weighing on the US Dollar, while traders keep assessing easing expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate hike and the situation from the Middle East.

Pi Network Price Forecast: PI extends consolidation as bulls eye $0.10

Pi Network (PI) price holds steady on Friday, maintaining a consolidating tone for three consecutive days. Mild retail strength in the PI token remains stable, with Open Interest above $9 million, while social buzz eases. PI token’s technical outlook is mixed, as bearish momentum wanes to neutral, with bulls eyeing the $0.1000 psychological level.

Weekly focus: Some relief in US inflation concerns

Actual inflation data for July came out as expected with a 0.1% m/m increase in headline CPI and 0.2% excluding food and energy. Annual headline inflation remains too high at 3.4% and means that wage earners are experiencing stagnating spending power at best, and core inflation is a bit higher than the inflation target of two percent would suggest.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.