EUR/USD Price Forecast: Broad US Dollar weakness favors higher highs

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1748

• The US Dollar keeps shedding ground after discouraging Nonfarm Payrolls.
• The United States will release inflation-related figures later in the week.
• EUR/USD aims to extend its gains beyond its recent multi-week peak.

The EUR/USD pair posts modest intraday gains on Monday, comfortably trading above the 1.1700 mark. The US Dollar (USD) trades with a soft tone across the FX board, extending the losses inspired by the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

The United States (US) published a much softer-than-anticipated employment report on Friday, as the NFP showed the economy was able to add modest 22,000 new job positions in August, well below the 75,000 anticipated by market players. The figures all but confirmed a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut when the central bank meets next week.

Other than that, Germany published some minor figures at the beginning of the new week. Industrial Production in the country was up 1.3% on a monthly basis in July, also up 1.5% from a year earlier. The July Trade Balance posted a seasonally adjusted surplus of €14.7 billion, missing the €15.4 billion anticipated by market analysts. Other than that, the Eurozone (EU) published the Sentix Investor Confidence index, which resulted in -9.2 in September, worsening from the -3.7 posted in August.

In the meantime, a no-confidence vote against French Prime Minister François Bayrou is underway.

The US calendar has nothing relevant to offer until Wednesday, when the country will publish the August Producer Price Index (PPI).

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows the risk skews to the upside, albeit the momentum is missing. Technical indicators aim higher, yet with limited upward strength, within positive levels. At the same time, the pair develops above a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at around 1.1665. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs remain far below the shorter one, also losing their former upward strength, in line with unconvinced buyers.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is bullish, but needs to surpass its Friday’s peak at 1.1759 to confirm another run north. In the meantime, a bullish 20 SMA advances beyond flat 100 and 200 SMAs, while technical indicators grind north within positive levels.

Support levels: 1.1700 1.1660 1.1620

Resistance levels: 1.1760 1.1800 1.1840