EUR/USD path of least resistance is down ahead of the Powell and the NFP – Confluence Detector


EUR/USD is trading around 1.1400 on the first Friday of 2019, sticking to familiar ranges seen in late 2018. The Non-Farm Payrolls report and an all-important speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell are due later. What levels should we watch on euro/dollar?

The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that the pair is trading around the 1.1390 area which is a juncture of several technical lines including the Simple Moving Average 200-15 minutes, the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day, the Bollinger Band one-day Middle, and more. 

1.1425 serves as an initial hurdle as it is the convergence of the BB 4h-Middle, the SMA 100-1h, the SMA 5-1d, and the BB 1h-Upper. 

Further above, the hard cap is at 1.1485 where we note the potent 100-day SMA, the BB 1d-Upper, the PP 1d-R2, and last week's high. It will be tough for the pair to move above this level.

Looking down, support is slightly weaker. 1.1355 is the confluence of the BB 1h-Lower, the Fibonacci 61.8% 1m, last week's low, and the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day.

The path low is full of minor cushions, but significant support awaits only at 1.1272 where we see the meeting point of last month's low, the PP 1d-S2, and the Fibonacci 161.8% one-week.

All in all, resistance lines are more substantial than support lines.

Here is how it looks on the tool:

EUR USD Technical confluence January 4 2019

Confluence Detector

The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies.

This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas.

Learn more about Technical Confluence

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD stays weak near 1.0700 ahead of key EU inflation, GDP data

EUR/USD stays weak near 1.0700 ahead of key EU inflation, GDP data

EUR/USD is keeping the red near 1.0700, undermined by a broad US Dollar rebound and a mixed market mood early Tuesday. Germany's Retail Sales rebound fail to impress the Euro ahead of key Eurozone inflation and GDP data releases. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD remains pressured toward 1.2500 on US Dollar rebound

GBP/USD remains pressured toward 1.2500 on US Dollar rebound

GBP/USD is extending losses toward 1.2500 in European trading on Tuesday. A cautious risk tone and a decent US Dollar comeback weigh negatively on the pair. The focus now shifts to mid-tier US data amid a data-light UK docket. 

GBP/USD News

Gold price remains depressed near $2,320 amid stronger USD, ahead of US macro data

Gold price remains depressed near $2,320 amid stronger USD, ahead of US macro data

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains depressed heading into the European session on Tuesday and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily range, just above the $2,320 level. 

Gold News

BNB price risks a 10% drop as Binance founder and ex-CEO Changpeng Zhao eyes Tuesday sentencing

BNB price risks a 10% drop as Binance founder and ex-CEO Changpeng Zhao eyes Tuesday sentencing

Binance Coin price is dumping, with the one-day chart showing a defined downtrend. While the broader market continues to bleed, things could get worse for BNB price ahead of Binance executive Changpeng Zhao sentencing on Tuesday, April 30.

Read more

Data fuels China optimism

Data fuels China optimism

China's factory activity has expanded for a second consecutive month, marking the best streak in over a year and fueling optimism for the sustainability of the world's second-largest economy's recovery.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures