EUR/USD Forecast: US Dollar surges ahead of critical events

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0817

• Central banks and earnings reports take centre stage this week.
• The US Dollar is firmly up despite an optimistic market mood.
• EUR/USD gains bearish momentum and aims to pierce the 1.0800 mark.

The US Dollar started the week with a firm footing, posting gains against most major rivals. The EUR/USD pair accelerated its slide ahead of Wall Street’s opening, trading at its lowest in three weeks near the 1.0800 mark.

The pair held rangebound through Asian trading hours despite the market mood being mostly optimistic. Local stock markets rallied following clues from American indexes last week and as investors bet on interest rates’ normalization. The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of England (BoE) will announce their decisions on monetary policy in the upcoming days, while multiple tech-related companies will announce quarterly results. Other than that, the US will publish employment-related figures, ending on Friday with the release of the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Data-wise, the Eurozone did not release relevant figures on Monday, although Germany and the EU will publish the preliminary estimates of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Tuesday. Growth in the three months to June is expected to have been tepid, not actually a surprise. Meanwhile, the upcoming American session will bring the July Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

According to technical readings in the daily chart, the risk of a bearish extension has increased. The EUR/USD pair failed to retain early gains above a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and currently pressures a flat 200 SMA, providing support at 1.0815. The 100 SMA, in the meantime, heads lower below the current level. At the same time, technical indicators have turned lower, suggesting increased selling interest, albeit still within neutral levels.

The 4-hour chart, on the other hand, shows a strong bearish momentum. EUR/USD edged sharply lower, now trading below the 20 and 100 SMAs. Technical indicators, in the meantime, gained downward traction within negative levels, maintaining their bearish slopes and in line with another leg lower.

Support levels: 1.0815 1.0770 1.0725

Resistance levels: 1.0870 1.0910 1.0945