EUR/USD Forecast: Trumped up by Trump's desire for a deal

EUR/USD kicks off the European morning on a positive note, topping 1.1450. US-Chinese trade talks have concluded without an accord, but both sides report progress.

More importantly, reports came out stating the US President Donald Trump is interested in reaching an accord. He carefully watches stock markets as a measure of his success as President, and the downfall in December caused concerns in the White House. 

S&P futures are on the rise, and the safe-haven US Dollar is sold off amid the risk-on mood. 

Earlier, Trump addressed the nation, blaming Democrats for the government shutdown and urging them to provide funding for a border wall. The response was swift, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi rebuffing his claims. The shutdown has not affected markets so far but may inflict damage as long as the crisis drags on. Government workers are set to miss another paycheck.

In the old continent, Germany reported a higher-than-expected trade balance surplus at 19 billion euros (seasonally adjusted). The good news comes after a very disappointing drop in industrial output for November: 1.9%. The publication stoked fears of a recession in the euro zone's largest economy. 

The euro-zone reports the unemployment rate for November later on. The primary event of the day is due only at 19:00 GMT. The Federal Reserve releases the meeting minutes from the December meeting. Back then, the Fed raised rates and signaled a slower pace of increases in 2019: two hikes against three reported beforehand. This was not initially seen as a "dovish hike" as markets had projected one or none.

Since then, Fed Chair Powell toned down his rhetoric. The minutes from the meeting will shed more light on the thinking of the world's most powerful central bank. As the document is edited until the last moment, the tone is forecast to be more on the dovish side, providing further support for financial markets and supporting EUR/USD.

See: FOMC Minutes Preview: The risks behind the pause

All in all, the upbeat market mood is set to continue, but surprises cannot be ruled out.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD enjoys slight upside Momentum as seen on the four-hour chart. It also trades above the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages. These are all bullish signs. 

1.1485 capped the pair earlier this week and also in mid-December, and it remains a critical level. 1.1500 is a round number and also the high point in November. 1.1550 was the peak in mid-October, and 1.1620 held the pair down in September. 

Some support awaits at 1.1440 which held euro/dollar down in late December. 1.1420 was a swing low on Tuesday and is also a more significant line of support. .1.1380 worked as both resistance and support and almost meets the 200 SMA. 1.1345 was a swing low last week.