|

EUR/USD Forecast: The big levels to watch after it lost the triple bottom

  • EUR/USD lost the all-important triple-bottom around 1.1270.
  • Economic divergence is behind the move.
  • Here are the big levels to watch on the daily chart.

Euro/dollar breached a level that supported it three times. 1.1270 was hit in November, then in December, and finally in February before the pair broke to lower ground. While the move awaits a definite confirmation, the downside trend is clear.

The slide in EUR/USD is also reflected in bond yields. While the 10-year US Treasuries remain stable, German bond yields are flirting with 0%. The demand for German bunds, which serve as safe-havens in the euro-zone, represents the worsening economic prospects for the currency bloc. US growth remains upbeat.

What's next for the pair?

EUR/USD levels

While the pair is stubborn, the break below the critical line opens the door to 1.1215, which was the lowest level recorded in 2018. 

A breach below 1.1215 already sends euro/dollar to levels last seen in June 2017, 20 months ago. Weak support may be found close by, at 1.1200 which is a round number. However, a considerable cushion awaits only at 1.1115, that provided support before the pair surged around that period.

Lower, the next support level is at 1.1025, just above the round number. It capped the pair in May 2017 and now switches to support. The round number of 1.09 held EUR/USD down back in March 2017 and is now support. The gap zone at 1.0820 is next.

Looking up, euro/dollar has quite a few resistance lines that date back from recent days. 1.1290, 1.1315, 1.1330, and 1.1350 may all cap attempts to recover. 

More: EUR/USD recovery? Not so fast – Confluence Detector

Author

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

More from Yohay Elam
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD keeps the red near 0.6950 after weak Aussie jobs data

AUD/USD holds losses near 0.6950 on disappointing Australian jobs data, extending the previous day's retracement slide from the monthly high and hitting a fresh weekly low during Thursday’s Asian session. Meanwhile, declining US bond yields drag the US Dollar away from the April 2025 high, touched after Wednesday's hot US CPI, helping limit losses for the currency pair.

USD/JPY slides back below 158.00 as USD reverses post-CPI gains

USD/JPY extends the previous day's pullback from a three-week high, attracting follow-through selling and sliding below 158.00 during Thursday's Asian session. Traders remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. The US Dollar, meanwhile, reverses Wednesday's hot CPI-led gains to April 2025 highs as US bond yields retreat on China bond-buying talk, further pressuring the pair.

Gold sticks to gains below $4,150 on weak USD; bulls seem hesitant amid Fed hike bets

Gold clings to modest intraday gains through the early European session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar, snapping a three-day losing streak to a one-week low set on Wednesday. The initial aggressive market reaction to hot US consumer inflation figures faded quickly amid expectations that the Fed may not rush to raise interest rates immediately. This led to a further decline in US bond yields, prompting some follow-through USD profit-taking and supporting the non-yielding bullion.

Bitcoin, XRP analyst sentiment jumps as Solana bulls hit 91%: CryptoQuant

Analyst sentiment on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, BNB and XRP has flipped bullish since July, as the top five cryptocurrencies recovered faster and more strongly than during the 2022-2023 market phase, according to CryptoQuant.

US Sept Retail Sales and PPI in focus along with corporate earnings
Asia market update: Bond traders ignore US CPI and focus on equity weakness and AI-credit concerns ahead of TSMC earnings; Kospi circuit breaker triggered for the first time since Jul; CHF and JPY rise on safe-haven demand; US Sept Retail Sales & PPI in focus along with corporate earnings. - Chinese shipping firms collapse amid capacity concerns.
Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?
Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?