- US Dollar soars on Tuesday on the back of Fed Powell’s testimony.
- Markets realign expectations ahead of key US employment data.
- EUR/USD remains under pressure, suffers the worst decline in weeks.
The EUR/USD fell sharply on Tuesday amid a rally of the US Dollar. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell took centre stage and delivered a hawkish message, sending the greenback sharply higher.
Despite EUR/USD’s slide, the Euro held relatively well against other rivals, as European Central Bank (ECB) officials continue to point to significant rate hikes ahead. Data released on Tuesday showed EZ Consumer Inflation Expectations for the next 12 months declined. In Germany, Factory Orders rose unexpectedly by 1% in January against expectations of a 1% decline.
At the semi-annual testimony before the US Senate, Fed Chair Powell spoke about the possibility of larger interest rate hikes amid the latest round of upbeat US economic data. He explained that inflationary pressures are higher than anticipated. His comments cemented expectations of “higher for longer” interest rates. The odds of a 50 basis points rate hike at the next meeting increased. US yields rose sharply, with the 2-year rate nearing 5%.
On Wednesday, Germany will report Industrial Production and Retail Sales data and the Eurozone a new estimate of Q4 GDP and Employment Change. In the US, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will release its employment report and Powell will testify again. On Friday, the NFP report is due. The events ahead of the macroeconomic calendar warrant more volatility ahead for EUR/USD, including the possibility of a sharp reversal.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
-638138159146399464.png)
The daily chart shows the EUR/USD had the worst day since early February on Tuesday, losing not only more than a hundred pips but breaking relevant short-term support levels and retreating below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Technical indicators have turned south on the daily chart, and a daily close below 1.0500 would point to a bearish continuation.
The 4-hour chart shows risks still tilted to the downside for EUR/USD, with the RSI approaching 70. After the sharp decline, some consolidation could be expected, however, if the pair holds below 1.0550, February lows around 1.0530 would be exposed. A break of that area should lead to a test of the critical 1.0500 mark. On the other hand, a correction could extend to 1.0590. Only a recovery above 1.0630 would significantly alleviate the bearish pressure.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD struggles to retain 1.1500 as USD gains traction
EUR/USD hovers around the 1.1500 level in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar surges despite dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller, supporting a rate cut as soon as July. The mood sours as investors weigh Middle East developments.
GBP/USD dives below 1.3500 after weak UK data, resurgent USD
GBP/USD turned red for the day and approaches the 1.3450 area as the week comes to an end. Earlier in the day, the UK reported weak Retail Sales figures, although the ongoing slump seems related to renewed risk aversion fueling safe-haven US Dollar demand.
Gold surges above $3,3360 as fears kick in
Gold gathers near-term momentum and trades near $3,370 ahead of the weekly close, as risk sentiment took a turn to the south. Following a positive start, Wall Street turned south. Middle East tensions and massive back-and-forth missile exchanges between Iran and Israel seem to be behind the ongoing run to safety.
Ripple Price Prediction: How tokenized treasuries could accelerate XRP to $10 by end-2025
Ondo Finance launched tokenized treasuries on the XRP Ledger in June, paving the way for seamless institutional adoption. The market capitalization of tokenized treasuries has grown to $5.9 billion despite market uncertainty over US tariffs.
Weekly focus: War and risk of escalation weigh on market sentiment
The war between Israel and Iran and the risk of further escalation weighed on markets this week. Equity markets largely traded in red and US treasury yields slid lower. That said, markets were by no means in full risk-off sentiment.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.