EUR/USD Forecast: Positive outlook, gains limited while under 1.0580
- The US Dollar took a breather, which favored a rebound in EUR/USD.
- Inflation data is set to be released on Friday, providing further insight.
- The short-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair has improved, but challenges remain.
On Thursday, the EUR/USD experienced a sharp rise, rebounding from monthly lows and approaching the 1.0600 level. This move was primarily driven by a correction in the US Dollar, which took a pause after a prolonged period of gains.
Market sentiment weighed on the US Dollar, while US economic data continued to indicate a robust economy. Second-quarter GDP growth data showed the economy expanding at a 2.1% annualized rate, and Initial Jobless Claims came in lower than expected at 204,000. The key economic release of the week will be the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, which, if it shows evidence of a rebound in inflation, could trigger a rally in the US Dollar across the board.
Comments from European Central Bank (ECB) members have had minimal impact on the Euro at the moment. Market expectations for no rate hike in October and small odds for December are prevailing. The perception that the ECB has reached its peak is strong currently. However, data remains critical, and on Thursday, the central bank received welcome news that helped support the Euro.
The annual inflation rate in Germany fell from 6.1% to 4.5%, while business and consumer sentiment indicators declined but less than expected. On Friday, Eurostat will release the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, expected at 4.5% (down from 5.2%) for the headline rate and 4.8% (down from 5.3%) for the core rate.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
The sharp rebound following the lowest daily close of the year so far has improved the outlook for the Euro, although the overall trend remains bearish. A recovery rally could potentially extend to 1.0700 without disrupting the bearish trend.
On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators suggest a slight upside risk ahead of the Asian session. However, the area around 1.0580 has acted as a strong resistance level. It is a key zone that needs to be surpassed for the Euro to pave the way for further gains, initially targeting 1.0600 and then 1.0630. Conversely, a consolidation below 1.0550 would increase bearish pressure, exposing support levels at 1.0520 and 1.0495.
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Author
Matías Salord
FXStreet
Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.
