• EUR/USD has been consolidating the gains fueled by the weak US Non-Farm Payrolls. 
  • The ECB has reportedly been worried about the exchange rate and de-anchoring of inflation expectations. 
  • Monday's technical four-hour chart points to further gains for the pair.

EUR/USD seems to have sobered up – gaining on the weakness of the USD is short-lived – as the monetary union has issues of its own. Reuters has reported that officials at the European Central Bank are considering cutting interest rates if growth further weakens. They are also reportedly concerned about inflation expectations being de-anchored – that markets do not believe the ECB's ability to reach their 2% inflation target. Moreover, a source said that the central bank is unhappy with the euro's exchange rate.

These reports have weighed on EUR/USD, triggering its consolidation and overshadowing positive developments. The US will refrain from imposing tariffs on Mexico both countries secured a deal to curb inflows of central-American migrants to the US. Markets have cheered the news. 

On Friday, euro/dollar surged after the US reported an increase of only 75K jobs and a deceleration in wage growth to 3.1%. Thee disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls report has fueled speculation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The central bank meets next week and is projected to keep rates unchanged. However, bond markets are pricing in a reduction in rates in July. 

Germany, France, and several other European countries are on holiday today – implying lower liquidity and few events on the economic calendar. In the US, only the JOLTs job openings report is due later in the day. 

Overall, markets will likely be assessing the odds for a US rate cut and further ECB stimulus. 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR USD technical analysis June 10 2019

EUR/USD has exited overbought conditions it had suffered from late on Friday – the Relative Strength Index on the four-hour chart has dropped below 70. Momentum remains positive but is winding down. 

Resistance awaits at 1.1310 which was the high point on Thursday. 1.1325 was a stubborn cap in April, and Friday's 11-week high of 1.1348 is next. The next level is 1.1395 and dates back to March.

Looking down, 1.1280 was a swing high in early June and now turns to support. 1.1250 was a stepping stone on the way up last week, and 1.1220 separated range in May. The round number of 1.1200 was a swing low last week.


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Bearish outside day as Fed tempers aggressive rate cut expectations

Tuesday’s bearish outside day makes today’s close pivotal. Fed officials pushed back on aggressive rate cut calls, pushing the USD higher. An above-forecast US durable goods data could yield a bearish daily close. 


GBP/USD offers fewer moves ahead of Carney’s speech

Having reversed from the 50-day SMA, mainly because of renewed Brexit fears and sluggish data from the UK’s CB retail sales survey, the GBP/USD pair trades modestly flat near 1.2685 ahead of the London open.


USD/JPY: Bulls back in charge, re-takes 107.50

The less dovish rhetoric from a selection of Fed speakers overnight continues to aid the post-FOMC US dollar recovery, prompting the USD/JPY pair to retest the midpoint of the 107 handle despite negative Asian equities. 


Conference Board Consumer Confidence: The China syndrome

The index declined to 121.5 in June from April’s revised 131.3. A much more modest drop to 131.2 had been predicted.  “The escalation in trade and tariff tensions earlier this month appears to have shaken consumers’ confidence,” wrote Lynn Franco.

Read more

Gold: 100-HMA triggers the U-turn towards $1421?

Gold is on a run towards near-term horizontal-resistance following its U-turn from the 100-hour moving average (HMA) ticks it up to $1407.80 ahead of the European open on Wednesday.

Gold News