EUR/USD Forecast: Now seems poised to fall below 1.1100 handle, US macro data in focus

The EUR/USD pair failed to capitalize on the overnight attempted bounce from sub-1.1200 level and met with some heavy supply on Wednesday to hit fresh 22-month lows. The initial leg of downtick came after the disappointing release of the German IFO survey, which showed business sentiment deteriorated further in April and amplified concerns of a sharp economic slowdown in the region's largest economy. Adding to this, a steep decline in the German 10-year bond, turning negative again, also affected the shared currency in a negative manner. 

Meanwhile, the recent US Dollar bullish run also picked up the pace on Wednesday, lifting the key USD index through the 98.00 handle to its highest level since June 2017, and further collaborated to the pair's sharp intraday slide. The pair took along some heavy trading stops placed near the 1.1185-75 region, marking 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0341-1.2556 up-move, and tumbled to an intraday low level of 1.1141, albeit the bearish pressure now seems to have abated as market participants now look forward to the release of US durable goods orders data for some fresh impetus.

From a technical perspective, the pair has already found acceptance below the mentioned Fibo. level, confirming a near-term bearish breakdown. With technical indicators on the daily chart still far from being in the oversold territory, the downward momentum is likely to get extended towards the 1.1100 round figure mark before the pair eventually drops to test a short-term descending trend-line support, currently near mid-1.1000s.

On the flip side, any attempted bounce might now confront immediate resistance near the support break-point, around the 1.1175-85 region and is closely followed by the 1.1200-10 supply zone, which if cleared might trigger a short-covering bounce back towards weekly tops, around the 1.1255-60 region.