EUR/USD Forecast: How low can the euro go? US stimulus and ECB action likely to sink it further


  • EUR/USD has been extending its falls to last seen in November 2020.
  • US stimulus progress in Congress, robust NFP and ECB bond data may exacerbate the pair's losses.
  • Monday's four-hour chart is showing oversold conditions, implying a temporary bounce.

Rejected at resistance – but where is support? EUR/USD has been falling sharply after failing to breach the critical 1.2110 level – a critical confluence of levels – and it has been downhill ever since. The main downside driver for the pair has been the rise in US yields, which has been boosting the dollar.

US Treasuries have suffered a sell-off on expectations of more robust growth and a reluctance by the Federal Reserve to intervene by buying bonds and pushing long-term borrowing costs lower. Chair Jerome Powell only said that the move "caught my attention," but offered no help.

Since that speech on Thursday, the greenback received two additional shots in the arm. First, February's Nonfarm Payrolls beat estimates with an increase of 379,000 jobs – and on top of upward revisions to previous months. While the quicker return of people to the workforce is encouraging, there are some 9.5 million Americans that have yet to return to work since the pandemic.

Another boost to growth prospects, yields, and the dollar came from the Senate, which approved a modified version of President Joe Biden's coronavirus relief package. While the White House ceded some ground to moderate Democrats, the legislation's scope remains around $1.9 trillion, a substantial stimulus to the economy. The bill returns to the House, which is set to approve it on Tuesday. 

On the vaccine front, the US has continued enlarging its gap from Europe, with America now expected to reach 50% of its population by late May. This development contrasts with Italy's desperate confiscation of AstraZeneca jabs that were sent to Australia. 

Some solace to the common currency comes from the Sentix Investor Confidence gauge for March, which beat estimates with a score of 5 points. On the other hand, German industrial output missed estimates with a fall of 2.5% in January.

Later in the day, the European Central Bank releases its weekly bond-buying figures. Did the Frankfurt-based institution ramp up its purchases to keep European bonds down? Last week, the ECB's figures surprised with a slowdown. A big boost to buying now would weigh on the common currency – and perhaps hint at a change of policy in the bank's decision due on Thursday. 

All in all, there are reasons to expect further falls for EUR/USD, but at least technicals point to a bounce.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar has plunged to levels last seen in November 2020, and the pace of the fall sent the Relative Strength Index below – indicating oversold conditions. That indicates a minor rise is likely. However, momentum remains to the downside and the currency pair is trading well below the 50, 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages. 

Support awaits at 1.1850, which provided support in November, followed by 1.1820 and 1.1750, the latter being a cushion in October. 

Some resistance is at 1.1895, Friday's low, followed by 1.1920 and 1.1950.

EUR/USD Price Forecast 2021: Euro-dollar long-term bullish breakout points to 1.2750

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD climbs above 1.1250 as investors eye coronavirus headlines

EUR/USD preserved its recovery momentum early Friday and rose above 1.1250 during the European trading hours. Markets are doubting the Fed's policy tightening prospects as the new coronavirus variant revives concerns over the economic recovery losing steam.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD rebounds toward mid-1.3300s on broad dollar weakness

GBP/USD reversed its direction after dipping below 1.3300 earlier in the day and started to push higher toward 1.3350. The greenback is facing heavy selling pressure amid the sharp decline witnessed in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield.

GBP/USD News

Gold clings to strong gains above $1,800 as US T-bond yields plunge Premium

Gold staged a decisive rebound on Friday and reclaimed $1,800. The intense flight to safety is causing US Treasury bond yields to fall sharply and fueling XAU/USD's rally. Investors await news on vaccines' effectiveness against the new COVID variant.

Gold News

Cardano could tank to $1 if ADA fails to defend crucial support

Cardano price is currently hovering below a freshly shattered 6-hour demand zone, ranging from $1.68 to $1.79. This resulting crash could extend to the immediate and critical foothold at $1.40. 

Read more

Black Friday 2021 Discounts!

Do you want to take your trading skills to the next level? Now you have a chance of leaping forward at attractive introductory rates. For Black Friday, FXStreet is offering discounts of up to 50% on its upgraded Premium plans. 

Subscribe now!

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures