EUR/USD Forecast: Holds steady as Thanksgiving holiday curbs trading activity

The Euro stays stable around 1.1590 as trading volumes collapse due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
The US Dollar sees a mild stabilization after Wednesday’s solid data, but expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to cap any rebound.
The ECB Accounts confirm a wait-and-see stance, keeping monetary policy divergence at the core of the pair’s trajectory.

Ghiles Guezout FXStreet

EUR/USD trades without clear direction around 1.1590 on Thursday, virtually unchanged on the day, as liquidity drops sharply with US markets closed for Thanksgiving. The pair retains a modest bullish bias after facing resistance just above 1.1600 earlier in the European session.

Price action remains limited by the lack of fresh macroeconomic catalysts. The United States (US) is not releasing any major data on Thursday, while US Bond and Equity markets are shut, preventing any directional momentum.

On Wednesday, US figures had briefly supported the US Dollar (USD), with Initial Jobless Claims declining to 216,000 and Durable Goods Orders rising 0.5%, both beating expectations. However, that support faded into the late US session amid risk-positive flows, allowing the Euro (EUR) to close marginally higher.

Monetary policy expectations remain a key driver for EUR/USD. Markets continue to anticipate further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the coming month, limiting the USD’s ability to extend technical rebounds. Investors consider that the gradual cooling of the labor market and the risks surrounding US growth make it difficult for the Fed to adopt a genuinely hawkish tone.

In the Eurozone, the Accounts of the October meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) showed that Governing Council members broadly view current rates as appropriate. The document highlights an inflation outlook that is “broadly unchanged”, with uncertainty still elevated, reinforcing the idea that the easing cycle has ended. This cautious stance provides some stability to the Euro, though it does not generate strong upside in the absence of new data.

With US markets partially frozen and a very light macro agenda, EUR/USD is likely to remain confined to a narrow range. Traders will wait for liquidity to return before reassessing monetary policy divergence and the US Dollar’s ability to regain traction, or resume its broader bearish trend.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1594, little changed on a daily basis and below the day opening by 8 pips. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) edges higher, suggesting a modestly improving bias. Price holds above the SMA, with the average at 1.1564 offering nearby dynamic support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 59, endorsing mild bullish momentum. Immediate support is seen at 1.1540, then at 1.1500, while initial resistance emerges around 1.1650.

A descending trend line from 1.1920 has limited gains, with a break area located near 1.1607. A decisive topside extension could target resistances at 1.1729 and 1.1779, while failure to clear trend resistance would leave the pair vulnerable to supports at 1.1500 and 1.1470. With momentum improving but capped by the line, subsequent direction would hinge on acceptance above the break area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

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Author

Ghiles Guezout

FXStreet

Ghiles Guezout is a Market Analyst with a strong background in stock market investments, trading, and cryptocurrencies. He combines fundamental and technical analysis skills to identify market opportunities.

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