EUR/USD Forecast: Euro starts showing signs of a bearish reversal
- EUR/USD trade below 1.0900 after closing in negative territory on Wednesday.
- The pair could extend its downward correction if 1.0870 is confirmed as resistance.
- Producer inflation data for February will be featured in the US economic docket.
EUR/USD stays on the back foot and declines toward 1.0850 after closing in negative territory on Wednesday. The pair's near-term technical outlook suggests that the downward correction could continue in the near term.
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.21% | 0.12% | -0.25% | 0.19% | 0.43% | 0.40% | -0.03% | |
| EUR | -0.21% | -0.09% | -0.45% | -0.03% | 0.22% | 0.22% | -0.24% | |
| GBP | -0.12% | 0.09% | -0.34% | 0.07% | 0.31% | 0.31% | -0.12% | |
| JPY | 0.25% | 0.45% | 0.34% | 0.43% | 0.68% | 0.66% | 0.26% | |
| CAD | -0.19% | 0.03% | -0.07% | -0.43% | 0.26% | 0.23% | -0.19% | |
| AUD | -0.43% | -0.22% | -0.31% | -0.68% | -0.26% | -0.00% | -0.41% | |
| NZD | -0.40% | -0.22% | -0.31% | -0.66% | -0.23% | 0.00% | -0.39% | |
| CHF | 0.03% | 0.24% | 0.12% | -0.26% | 0.19% | 0.41% | 0.39% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) finally found a foothold on Wednesday and registered modest gains against its major rivals, causing EUR/USD to edge lower. Although the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that inflation rose at a softer pace than anticipated in February, investors still price in about a 70% probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) holding its policy rate unchanged in May.
Later in the session, the Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for February will be featured in the US economic docket. In case the data points to a decline in producer inflation, the USD's upside could remain limited.
Nevertheless, the negative shift seen in risk mood could still make it difficult for EUR/USD to regain its traction. At the time of press, US stock index futures were losing between 0.3% and 0.7% on the day. A bearish opening in Wall Street could support the USD in the second half of the day and weigh on the pair.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD was last seen trading slightly below 1.0870, where the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the lower limit of the ascending regression channel meet. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator closes in on 50, reflecting a loss of bullish momentum.
In case EUR/USD fails to reclaim 1.0870, technical sellers could take action. In this scenario, 1.0800 (static level, round level) could be seen as next support before 1.0730 (200-day SMA). On the upside, 1.0940 (static level) aligns as interim resistance before 1.1000-1.1010 (static level, round level, mid-point of the ascending channel).
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
