EUR/USD Forecast: Euro shows no positive signs ahead of Lagarde and Powell
- The US Dollar rises back to monthly highs ahead of key speeches.
- ECB Lagarde and Fed Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.
- The EUR/USD pair has a bearish bias, trading near the psychological 1.0800 level and the 200-day SMA.
The EUR/USD is back near important technical levels after a short-lived rebound that faded around 1.0870. The retreat took place as the US Dollar gained momentum ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
The US Dollar strengthened on Thursday despite mixed US data and no clear messages from Fed members. Declines in US stocks and a rebound in US Treasury yields supported the Greenback. Data from the US showed that Durable Goods Orders tumbled 5.2% in July, against the market consensus of a 4% decline. Initial Jobless Claims declined to 230,000, better than the market estimate of 240,000.
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Mario Centeno said on Thursday that they have to be cautious at the next meeting. He warned that downside risks to the economy have materialized. His dovish comments are in line with the recent decline in expectations about further monetary policy tightening from the ECB, which explains some weakness in EUR/USD.
On Friday, Germany will report a new reading of Q2 GDP and the ZEW Survey. In the US, the only top-tier report is the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey. The focus is centered on Jackson Hole. First, it will be the turn of ECB's Lagarde (11:00 GMT), and then Fed's Powell (14:00 GMT). Those speeches could trigger sharp moves across markets.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
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The EUR/USD is trading slightly above the pivotal 1.0800 area and also slightly above the 200-day Simple Moving Average. The last time it traded below the famous SMA was back in November of last year. The rebound of the Euro was short-lived, confirming that bears are still in control. A daily close above 1.0930 would provide some support for the common currency and indicate a stronger recovery.
On the 4-hour chart, the bias is clearly to the downside, and technical indicators suggest that the 1.0800 level will likely be challenged in the next hours. A break below 1.0790 could trigger further losses, with the next support at 1.0780 followed by 1.0740. On the upside, the immediate resistance is at 1.0830, followed by the 1.0860 zone. Mixed and volatile trading is likely ahead of Powell's speech, but risks are tilted to the downside.
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Author
Matías Salord
FXStreet
Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.
