EUR/USD Forecast: Euro renews multi-month highs ahead of FOMC Minutes
- EUR/USD extended its uptrend to a fresh multi-month high above 1.0960.
- Hawkish ECB commentary helped the Euro continue to gather strength.
- The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the October 31-November 1 policy meeting.
EUR/USD started the week on a bullish note and closed in positive territory on Monday. The pair continued to push higher and reached its strongest level since August above 1.0960 in the early European session on Tuesday.
The positive shift seen in risk sentiment made it difficult for the US Dollar to find demand in the American trading hours on Monday and helped EUR/USD hold its ground.
Euro price this week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.37% | -0.62% | 0.00% | -0.93% | -1.66% | -1.33% | -0.25% | |
| EUR | 0.39% | -0.26% | 0.37% | -0.54% | -1.28% | -0.94% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.62% | 0.26% | 0.62% | -0.29% | -1.02% | -0.68% | 0.38% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | -0.37% | -0.63% | -0.93% | -1.66% | -1.32% | -0.25% | |
| AUD | 0.95% | 0.55% | 0.33% | 0.92% | -0.73% | -0.40% | 0.71% | |
| JPY | 1.64% | 1.28% | 0.79% | 1.63% | 0.72% | 0.32% | 1.39% | |
| NZD | 1.32% | 0.94% | 0.69% | 1.30% | 0.39% | -0.34% | 1.10% | |
| CHF | 0.25% | -0.11% | -0.37% | 0.25% | -0.67% | -1.41% | -1.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Meanwhile, comments from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers provided a boost to the Euro. ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said late Monday that he expected key rates to remain where they are for the next few quarters. Similarly, ECB policymaker Pablo Hernandez de Cos reiterate that it was "absolutely premature" to start talking about interest rate cuts and added that he did not expect the ECB to return to forward guidance on monetary policy.
In the second half of the day, October Existing Home Sales data will be featured in the US economic docket. Later in the American session, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will publish the minutes of the October 31-November 1 policy meeting.
Following last week's soft US inflation data, markets have been pricing a strong chance of the Fed making a policy shift in the second half of 2024 and this publication is unlikely to influence the market positioning in a significant way. ECB President Christine Lagarde and Governing Council member Isabelle Schnabel are scheduled to speak later in the day as well. In case officials continue to push back against the market expectation of ECB rate cuts next year, the Euro could stay resilient against the USD.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD was last seen trading near 1.0950, where the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level of the July-October downtrend is located. In case the pair fails to stabilize above that level, a technical correction toward 1.0900 (20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), psychological level) and 1.0850 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) could be seen.
On the upside, 1.1000 (psychological level, static level) aligns as strong resistance before 1.1065 (August 10 high).
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
