|

EUR/USD Forecast: Euro could have a hard time clearing 1.0750

  • EUR/USD has regained its traction in the European morning.
  • Improving risk mood seems to be helping the pair edge higher.
  • Investors could remain reluctant to bet on further Euro strength ahead of Fed.

Following a consolidation phase at around 1.0700 in the Asian session, EUR/USD has regained its traction and climbed to a weekly highs above 1.0730 in the European morning. Although the positive shift witnessed in risk sentiment could help the pair keep its footing, investors could refrain from betting on a steady uptrend ahead of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy announcements.

While testifying before the European Parliament on Monday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde noted that they would have indicated that further rate hikes will be needed if there were no tensions in markets. She also repeated that inflation in the Eurozone is projected to remain too high for too long. These comments failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction but allowed the Euro to stay resilient against its major rivals.

Reflecting the upbeat market mood, Euro Stoxx 50 is up more than 1.5% in the early European session. Moreover, US stock index futures are up around 0.3%.

ZEW Survey's Economic Sentiment Index for Germany and the Eurozone will be featured in the European economic docket. The survey is forecast to reveal a deterioration in sentiment in March due to the Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse turmoil. In case the decline is more severe than expected, the Euro could lose some interest with the immediate reaction.

In the second half of the day, Existing Home Sales from the US will be looked upon for fresh impetus. As mentioned above, however, markets are unlikely to take large positions before the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart holds comfortably above 50, suggesting that buyers remain in control. On the upside, 1.0750 (static level) aligns as key resistance. In case the pair manages to flip that level into support, it could target 1.0770 (static level) and 1.0800 (static level, psychological level) next.

First support is located at 1.0700 (psychological level, static level, ascending trend line) before 1.0660 (200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA)) and 1.0640 (100-period SMA).

Premium

You have reached your limit of 3 free articles for this month.

Start your subscription and get access to all our original articles.

Subscribe to PremiumSign In

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD bounces toward 1.1750 as US Dollar loses strength

EUR/USD returned to the 1.1750 price zone in the American session on Friday, despite falling Wall Street, which indicates risk aversion. Trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, with the focus shifting to US employment and European data scheduled for next week.

GBP/USD nears 1.3500, holds within familiar levels

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades with modest intraday gains at around 1.3490 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold trims intraday gains, approaches $4,300

Gold retreated sharply from the $4,400  area and trades flat for the day in the $4,320 price zone. Choppy trading conditions exacerbated the intraday decline, although XAU/USD bearish case is out of the picture, considering growing expectations for a dovish Fed and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Breaking: US Trump strikes Venezuela, claims President Maduro was captured and flown out of the country

United States (US) President Donald Trump has fulfilled his threats and finally struck Venezuela. Different media reports that explosions in Caracas began around 1:50 am local time on Saturday, leaving multiple areas of the city without power.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).