EUR/USD Forecast: Euro could face stiff resistance at 1.0800

EUR/USD stabilized above 1.0750 after posting gains for two consecutive days.
Strong resistance seems to have formed at 1.0800.
Producer inflation and consumer sentiment data will be featured in the US economic docket.

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.0750 on Friday after closing the previous two days in positive territory. Although the pair's near-term technical outlook points to a buildup of bullish momentum, buyers could remain on the sidelines unless 1.0800 is flipped into support.

Mixed macroeconomic data releases from the US and the positive shift seen in risk mood made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to hold its ground on Thursday and allowed EUR/USD to extend its recovery. Retail Sales in the US declined 0.8% on a monthly basis in January, while the weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 212,000 from 220,000.

Later in the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for January. The PPI is forecast to rise 0.1% on a monthly basis following December's 0.1% decline. A negative monthly PPI print could weigh on the USD with the immediate reaction. On the other hand, an unexpected increase of 0.3% or bigger could provide a boost to the currency and force EUR/USD to stay on the back foot.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a near 70% probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) leaving the policy rate unchanged at the next two policy meetings. The market positioning suggests that the USD could weaken sharply in case investors start leaning toward a policy pivot in May.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart rose above 50 and EUR/USD closed the last 5 4-hour candles above the 20-period and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA), highlighting a bullish tilt in the short-term technical outlook.

1.0800 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend, 100-day SMA, upper limit of the descending regression trend channel) aligns as critical resistance for EUR/USD. In case the pair rises above that level and confirms it as support, it could target 1.0830 (50-day SMA) and 1.0860 (200-period SMA) next.

On the downside, immediate support is located at 1.0760 (50-period SMA) before 1.0730-40 (20-period SMA, mid-point of the descending channel) and 1.0700 (end-point of the downtrend, psychological level).

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

GBP/USD defends 1.3300 after strong UK PMI data

Following Thursday's sharp decline, GBP/USD clings to small gains above 1.3300 in the American session on Friday, supported by the upbeat UK Retail Sales and July PMI data. Nevertheless, the pair's upside remains capped as investors cling to a cautious stance amid a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US July PMI data failed to trigger relevant price action.

EUR/USD remains below 1.1400 after mixed US PMIs

EUR/USD pressures daily lows below the 1.1400 mark in the American session on Friday. Mixed S&P Global PMIs, as manufacturing output contracted while services activity expanded in July, triggered no relevant market reaction. The focus remains in Middle East developments and inflation-related concerns.

Gold holds above $4,050 but momentum still missing

Gold builds on its modest intraday bounce and climbs above the $4,050 level on Friday, hitting a fresh daily high amid a modest US Dollar pullback. The fundamental backdrop, however, warrants some caution before confirming that the pullback from an over two-week high, touched on Wednesday, has run its course and positioning for any meaningful upside.

Ethereum: Derivatives interest in ETH improves, but signs of caution remain

Ethereum is hovering slightly below the $1,900 level, down 3% on Thursday following a slight expansion in derivatives interest. The top altcoin's open interest has increased to 14.60 million ETH, marking a 600K ETH increase over the past two days and its highest level since June 7.

XRP retreats as ETF interest cools

Ripple (XRP) slides toward the short-term $1.10 support on Friday, as broader crypto market sentiment weighs on crypto assets. The sell-off mainly stems from fears of inflation in the United States (US) amid the ongoing war in the Middle East and rising Oil prices.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.