EUR/USD Forecast: Euro buyers hesitate on renewed USD strength
- EUR/USD retreats toward 1.0500 at the beginning of the week.
- Trump's comments and the risk-averse market atmosphere supports the USD.
- The US economic calendar will feature ISM Manufacturing PMI data for November.
EUR/USD struggles to build on the previous week's gains and declines toward 1.0500 in the European morning on Monday. The technical outlook points to a bearish tilt in the near term.
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.72% | 0.39% | 0.33% | 0.39% | 0.24% | 0.38% | 0.46% | |
| EUR | -0.72% | -0.36% | -0.38% | -0.31% | -0.38% | -0.32% | -0.22% | |
| GBP | -0.39% | 0.36% | -0.06% | 0.05% | -0.01% | 0.04% | 0.11% | |
| JPY | -0.33% | 0.38% | 0.06% | 0.06% | -0.04% | 0.09% | 0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.39% | 0.31% | -0.05% | -0.06% | 0.01% | -0.00% | 0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.24% | 0.38% | 0.00% | 0.04% | -0.01% | 0.05% | 0.10% | |
| NZD | -0.38% | 0.32% | -0.04% | -0.09% | 0.00% | -0.05% | 0.09% | |
| CHF | -0.46% | 0.22% | -0.11% | -0.08% | -0.06% | -0.10% | -0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The negative shift seen in risk mood and US President-elect Donald Trump's comments on BRICS help the US Dollar (USD) gather strength at the beginning of the week.
Over the weekend, Trump warned against BRICS nations trying to replace the USD with their own currency. "We require a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new BRICS currency, nor back any other currency to replace the mighty US Dollar or, they will face 100% tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful US economy," he said on X.
Meanwhile, US stock index futures were last seen losing above 0.2% on the day, reflecting the cautious market stance.
Later in the day, the ISM Manufacturing PMI data will be featured in the US economic docket. The headline PMI is forecast to edge higher to 47.5 in November from 46.5 in October. A reading above 50 could boost the USD and further weigh on the pair. On the other hand, a disappointing reading could hurt the USD with the immediate reaction. Nevertheless, EUR/USD's recovery attempts could remain limited unless the risk mood improves in the second half of the day.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart declined below 50 and EUR/USD closed the last three 4-hour candles below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), despite ending the week slightly above it.
On the downside, immediate support is located at 1.0500 (static level, round level) before 1.0440 (static level) and 1.0400 (static level, round level). Looking north, first resistance could be spotted at 1.0550 (100-period SMA) ahead of 1.0610 (static level) and 1.0660 (static level).
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
